Fitz’s NFL Conference Championships Player Prop Bets Picks (2023)

Jan 26, 2023 - 7:12 PM

We’re down to just one multi-game slate in the NFL season, so props bettors should make the most of this opportunity.

Fortunately, with only two games to bet on this week, the sportsbooks have posted prop bets for most of the QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs in those games, so it doesn’t feel like a terribly limited menu.

We’ll get to this week’s plays in just a moment. But first, a quick recap of last week’s plays.

The wins: Brock Purdy under 30.5 pass attempts, Joe Burrow under 279.5 passing yards, Travis Etienne under 70.5 rushing yards.

The losses: Trevor Lawrence over 243.5 passing yards, Kadarius Toney under 31.5 receiving yards, A.J. Brown over 71.5 receiving yards, Hayden Hurst under 33.5 receiving yards.

Here are my favorite selections for the conference championships …

2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide >>

NFL Conference Championships Player Prop Bets Picks (2023)

• Last week: 3-4
• Season record: 83-60

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, as of Thursday morning.

Brock Purdy UNDER 219.5 passing yards

The Philadelphia pass defense is downright vicious. It starts with a fearsome pass rush. The Eagles had 70 sacks during the regular season — the most by any team since the 1984 Chicago Bears had 72. Haason Reddick, Javon Hargreave, Josh Sweat and Brandon Graham all had double-digit sacks for the Eagles. Philadelphia also has a terrific pair of cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. The Eagles gave up only 207 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks during the regular season, and they held Daniel Jones to 135 passing yards last week. They’ve given up 5.5 yards per pass attempt this year, fewest in the league. The Eagles’ run defense isn’t nearly as effective. Philadelphia ranked 21st in DVOA against the run this year. Expect the 49ers to deploy a run-heavy gameplan this week to keep the Eagles’ pass rush at bay. The 49ers have been very judicious about how much they ask of Purdy. In his seven starts, Purdy has averaged 26.1 pass attempts. He threw 29 times against the Cowboys last week and finished with 214 passing yards. Philadelphia has a better pass defense than Dallas. Expect Purdy to come up short of this number.

Joe Burrow UNDER 279.5 passing yards

Burrow has faced the Chiefs three times over the past two seasons. His yardage totals in those games: 446, 250 and 286. So, why bet the under here? Burrow has thrown for 242 or fewer yards in three consecutive games and five of his last six. He’s averaged just 6.3 yards per pass attempt over that span. The Bengals have three of their starting offensive linemen hurt: right guard Alex Cappa and tackles Jonah Williams and La’el Collins. It’s unlikely that either Williams or Cappa plays this week, and Collins is out for the season. The Bengals’ offensive line didn’t miss a beat last week in its first game without Williams and Cappa, manhandling the Bills’ defense. But Cincinnati’s opponent this week, Kansas City, has a better pass rush than Buffalo’s The Chiefs had 55 sacks this season, second only to the Eagles, and had a 24.9% pressure rate, fifth-best in the league. The Bengals need to at least pay lip service to the running game to keep the Chiefs’ pass rush honest, and Burrow might not get the time he needs to let WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins get downfield on deeper routes. Burrow had 242 passing yards last week against the Bills, and I think we’ll see him post a similar number this week.

Miles Sanders UNDER 61.5 rushing + receiving yards

I prefer to play Sanders’ rushing + receiving total rather than his rushing total because it raises the bar for Sanders, and he’s almost a complete zero as a pass catcher. Sanders has fallen short of this number in six of his last 10 games. During that stretch, he’s drawn only 13 targets and has caught nine passes for 36 yards. Sanders will do the vast majority of his work on the ground, and he’ll be facing a nasty 49ers run defense. San Francisco ranked second in DVOA against the run during the regular season and gave up only 59.6 rushing yards per game to running backs. Sanders shares the Philadelphia backfield with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott. Only once in his last eight games has Sanders played more than 54% or the Eagles offensive snaps. It’s going to be hard for Sanders to reach this number with a potentially limited number of touches against an excellent run defense.

Joe Mixon OVER 58.5 rushing yards

This is correlated with the under on Joe Burrow’s passing yardage. As mentioned earlier, I think the Bengals will endeavor to balance run and pass in their offensive gameplan in an attempt to defang the Kansas City pass rush. Cincinnati’s injury-riddled offensive line will probably find it easier to open holes against a Chiefs run defense that ranks 15th in DVOA than to neutralize a Chiefs pass rush that ranks second in sacks and fifth in pressure rate. Mixon has cleared this number in three of his last six games and ran 20 times for 105 yards last week against the Bills. He’s had double-digit carries in six straight games.

DeVonta Smith OVER 65.5 receiving yards

Smith has topped this number in five of his last seven games, and he’s topped the 100-yard mark four times over that stretch. He’s seen eight or more targets in each of his last 10 games, and he’s had five or more receptions in each of his last seven games. As noted earlier, the San Francisco run defense is outstanding, so the Eagles will probably have to throw the ball often this Sunday. The 49ers gave up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers during the regular season.

Noah Gray OVER 12.5 receiving yards

The “other” Kansas City tight end has failed to clear this number only twice his last 11 games, and in one of those games he fell just a half-yard short. Gray has averaged 1.9 receptions and 22.5 yards per game during that stretch. He’s played more than half of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in each of their last nine games, and he played 37 snaps last week against the Jaguars. Gray will be facing a Bengals defense that allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends during the regular season.

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