NFL Conference Championship Same Game Parlay Picks & Predictions

Jan 27, 2023 - 12:31 AM

This week, we have one of the most anticipated days on the NFL calendar – NFL Championship Sunday. The 49ers head to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in the early game, while the Bengals and Chiefs will give us a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship on Sunday night.

After cashing Same Game Parlays of +180 and +230 in this article last week, we’ll look to stay hot with these two SGPs on DraftKings.

2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide >>

Best Conference Championships Same Game Parlay Bets

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings)

49ers @ Eagles

Leg 1: 49ers +4.5 (-150)

Both these teams looked great last week, with San Francisco pulling off a 19-12 win over the Cowboys and Philadelphia routing the Giants 38-7. While the Eagles have a home-field advantage and the best record in the NFL, I think the 49ers outperform expectations and win on the road on Sunday. The key to the 49ers’ success all season has been their ability to run the ball and stop the run. This could cause serious trouble for the Eagles.

San Francisco ranks number one in the league regarding yards per carry allowed at a minuscule 3.4 YPC. The Eagles, meanwhile, allow 4.6 yards per carry – a bottom-ten mark in the NFL. On the other hand, the Eagles rely on their run game heavily – they had 544 rushing attempts this year, 3rd most in the league. The 49ers aren’t as run-dominant, but they average 4.7 rush yards per carry – a top-ten mark in the league.

If San Francisco can make the Eagles’ offense one-dimensional and run the ball well, it could be a long day for Philadelphia. Taking the alternate +4.5 line gives us some breathing room in case the Eagles win a tight game, but I love the value in taking the 49ers’ side here.

Leg 2: Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+125)

With the 49ers’ defense being so exceptional at stopping opposing RBs, I expect the Eagles to dial up plenty of designed runs for Jalen Hurts to establish the run game. Hurts has been a scoring machine this year, scoring a TD in six of his last eight games, including last week’s win over the Giants. This is a function of both Hurts’ talent and opportunity – his 44 rush attempts in the regular season were 5th most in the NFL, and he added three more in last week’s playoff game.

Given the opportunities, Hurts is likely to get around the goal line, and with his recent scoring streak, getting plus money here is a great value.

Leg 3: A.J. Brown O84.5 Receiving Yards (+145)

While the 49ers’ defense is the best in the league, they’ve had one weakness in recent weeks. They’ve been unable to contain the opposing team’s top WR. With teams unable to run the ball against them and the middle of the field locked down by San Francisco’s exceptional LBs, getting the ball to playmakers on the outside has been the only way to move the ball against the 49ers. Already in the playoffs, they’ve allowed 117 yards to CeeDee Lamb and 136 yards to DK Metcalf.

A.J. Brown spoke about wanting more targets this week, and he has the big play ability to pick up 85 yards on just a few catches. I love this as an aggressive parlay leg, especially if the Eagles find themselves trailing.

Parlay Odds: +850 (Risk 1 unit to win 8.5)

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Bengals @ Chiefs

Leg 1: Chiefs ML (-120)

While Joe Burrow has owned the Chiefs in his career, I’ll bet on Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead at -120 against anybody. This line has moved over the course of the week as more news has come out surrounding Mahomes’ ankle injury. Given that he’s logging a full week of practice, I don’t expect the ankle to be a major factor. I’ll take Mahomes with limited mobility over a huge majority of NFL QBs. 

It feels like the public has bought into both the Bengals’ recent success and their success over the Chiefs a little bit too heavily. While Cincinnati was very impressive in their dominant win in Buffalo last week, they arguably should have lost at home to a banged-up Ravens team the prior week. And while Burrow is 3-0 career vs. the Chiefs, all three wins were fourth-quarter comebacks, and each one came by just three points.

The Bengals can absolutely pull off the win this week – betting against Joe Burrow is a scary proposition – but given the price being offered, I’ll gladly take Mahomes and the Chiefs at home in the playoffs.

Leg 2: Jerick McKinnon Anytime TD (+160)

Isaiah Pacheco is the Chiefs RB that fits the “goal line” stereotype a bit more closely, but McKinnon is often the one on the field when the Chiefs get in scoring range. He’s logged 21 red zone attempts in his last nine games and scored in the Chiefs’ final six regular season games before being held out of the end zone last week against Jacksonville.

Given McKinnon’s goal line volume and nose for the end zone, catching +160 odds on an Anytime TD prop makes this a great parlay leg.

Leg 3: Joe Mixon 4+ Receptions (-125)

Kansas City’s defense has been one of the worst in the NFL this year at allowing opposing RBs to do damage in the receiving game. The Chiefs allow 6.2 catches per game to opposing RBs – most in the NFL. This bodes well for Joe Mixon, who has become more involved in the Bengals’ passing game in recent weeks. He has a total of five catches over Cincinnati’s two playoff games but logged at least five catches in each of the Bengals’ final three regular season games. He has 27 targets over that five-game stretch, 22 of which have resulted in a reception.

Other Bengals’ receiving threats are likely to post bigger stat lines, but there’s sneaky value in Mixon’s receptions prop on Sunday night.

Parlay Odds: +675 (Risk 1 unit to win 6.75)

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