Picks and Profits: Conference Championships

Jan 27, 2023 - 6:19 PM

With all apologies to the Buffalo Bills, we got the best possible championship weekend we as fans could ask for. The Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game offers plenty of intrigue on its own, but add in the miraculously healed ankle of Patrick Mahomes and we’ve got ourselves a good old fashioned hopscotch spread. Yes, that spread started with the Chiefs favored, swung all the way to the Bengals favored by 2.5 and finally swinging back to around even.

Everyone is excited about this one and my advice is to just throw your money on the moneyline of whatever team you like best here. For me, I’m backing the Bengals to go into Burrowhead, er, Arrowhead and prove once again that they’re the better team. They’re healthy and peaking at the right time. A lot of people have doubted the Bengals all year, including the books. The Bengals are 13-4-1 against the spread, meaning they’ve significantly outperformed their betting line. The Chiefs are a lousy 7-10-1, which may indicate that the sustained excellence of Kansas City is baked into their lines. Burrow’s offense looks like it’s simply toying with opponents and should have a clear path to points, which also means I’m hammering the over in this one. Bum ankle or not, Mahomes will still find a way to keep it close.

As for the NFC game, it’s a great matchup. The San Francisco 49ers are back in the title game once again, this time with the rookie Brock Purdy under center. It’s a magical story for a magical season...and this is as far as it will go. The Philadelphia Eagles were the runaway best team in the NFC for most of the year before Jalen Hurts got banged up against the Bears. He’s healthy, that team looks well-rested and ready to go punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. This team has excess talent at every level on defense and arguably the best offensive line in football. They’ll need to be to combat Nick Bosa and a stout 49ers defense, yes, but I’ll take the irresistible force over the immovable object in the modern NFL. The Eagles are an impressive 7-3 against the spread at home this year and the books are giving us a gift in keeping it under three points. Don’t overthink this one - Philly wins and covers.

Check out where the rest of our writers are at this week and hit up the comments below to let us know your picks.

You can find the latest on tonight’s game right here from our partners over at DraftKings Sportsbook.