Matthew Freedman’s Super Bowl LVII Betting Card

Feb 5, 2023 - 12:25 PM

Super Bowl LVII: It’s here. Chiefs vs. Eagles. No. 1 seed vs. No. 1 seed.

Let’s do this.

It has been a good 2022-23 NFL season for us. You can follow all of my picks on BettingPros here.

Get ready for the big game with our Super Bowl LVII Betting Guide >>

Conference Championship Record

• Spreads, Totals, Moneylines & Teasers: 1-3 (-2.55 units)
• Player Props: 6-1 (+5.33 units)

Year-to-Date Record

• Spreads, Totals, Moneylines & Teasers: 133-111 (+10.9 units)
• Player Props: 257-199 (+40.2 units)

All of my Super Bowl LVII player projections are available for free.

Although I track all of my bets collectively in the BettingPros App and BettingPros Discord, I figure it will also be good to have them posted on the site in an article, since there are so many different kinds of bets one can make on the Super Bowl.

So here’s my betting card for the Super Bowl.

As I make more bets, I will post them first in our Discord and then write up my bets for publication via article. To get my Super Bowl LVII bets as quickly as possible, join Discord.

All odds are from the following sportsbooks.

• DraftKings
• FanDuel
• Caesars
• PointsBet
• BetMGM
• FOXBet

Freedman’s Super Bowl LVII Bets

Chiefs +2.5

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Jan. 29
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: I bet this shortly after initial lines were posted and the market quickly moved to Eagles -2.5. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog for his career.

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl MVP

• Odds: +130
• Sportsbook: FanDuel
• Date: Feb. 4
• Units: 1
• Notes: This is basically another way of betting Chiefs moneyline, which is +105 across the market. If the Chiefs win, I think there’s a 90% chance Mahomes will be the MVP. I have the Chiefs projected as favorites, so I think this line should be closer to +110 or +115.

Harrison Butker Super Bowl MVP

• Odds: +35000
• Sportsbook: PointsBet
• Date: Feb. 4
• Units: 0.25
• Notes: This bet is in coordination with my Mahomes MVP position. If Mahomes wins, I’ll profit 1.05 units (1.3 units won on Mahomes minus 0.25 units lost on Butker). If Butker somehow wins, I’ll profit 86.5 units (87.5 units won on Butker minus 1 unit lost on Mahomes. If neither wins, I’m out 1.25 units. In this game, both quarterbacks — Mahomes (ankle) and Jalen Hurts (shoulder) — are somewhat injured. And both defenses are good: The Eagles (70) and Chiefs (55) were Nos. 1-2 in most sacks this year.So I think the odds of this being a tight, low-scoring game are greater than most people imagine, and I also believe the Chiefs are being discounted by the market. If the Chiefs win, but Mahomes has a mediocre game because of injury and matchup, we could see Butker have multiple field goals — and since the spread (-1.5) is short we might see a game-winning field goal. I think the odds of Butker winning Super Bowl MVP are about 0.5% — but the implied odds at 350-1 are 0.28%, so I see some value here. Framed differently: This line is 250-1 at most books and as low as 200-1 at Caesars. I think PointsBet is way out of line with the market and the realistic odds. Butker is highly unlikely to win Super Bowl MVP. But if he does … I’ll be buying myself something nice. Like an autographed Butker jersey.

*+35000 –> 350-1. I accidentally added an extra zero in there. My bad.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) February 4, 2023

Justin Watson Under 1.5 Receptions

• Odds: -120
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Feb. 7
• Units: 1.2
• Notes: I have Watson projected for 0.7 receptions. Not since Week 12 has he had more than 1.5.

Dallas Goedert Under 4.5 Receptions

• Odds: +130
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 7
• Units: 1
• Notes: I have this projected at 4.4, so I’ll take the plus odds on something that is about a 50/50 proposition. His 79.7% catch rate this season is the stuff of future regression.

Isiah Pacheco Under 15.5 Yards Receiving

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: PointsBet
• Date: Feb. 7
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: Pacheco had a career-high six targets, five receptions and 59 yards receiving in the AFC Championship, but the presence of Jerick McKinnon and return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire is likely to limit his pass-catching role.

Miles Sanders Under 13.5 Rush Attempts

• Odds: -115
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 7
• Units: 1.15
• Notes: I have this projected at 12.3. I think the Eagles will have more of a pass-heavy gamescript than they usually do. Since the Week 7 bye, Sanders has gone under 13.5 carries in 8 of 13 games.

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdowns

• Odds: -114
• Sportsbook: Caesars
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.14
• Notes: The Chiefs wide receivers aren’t at full strength, so Kelce could be targeted at an enhanced rate, especially in the red zone. Since the 2018-19 postseason, Kelce has 14 touchdowns in 13 games.

Isiah Pacheco Most Rushing Yards

• Odds: +330
• Sportsbook: FanDuel
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1
• Notes: I have Pacheco (12.2) and Miles Sanders (12.6) projected for a comparable number of carries. I think this should be much closer to an even split between Pacheco, Sanders, and Jalen Hurts than what we see in the market.

Here's a Super Bowl bet I really like: Pacheco Most Rushing Yards +330 at FanDuel.

Shop around: I saw this first at +210 at DraftKings.

— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) February 9, 2023

Jalen Hurts Under 25 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: DraftKings is hilariously bad at projecting player production and then converting that into DraftKings points. It makes them very exploitable whenever they post fantasy point props, especially to the under. Since returning from his shoulder injury, Hurts has had 9.5, 23.6 and 14.7 DraftKings points.

Patrick Mahomes Under 24.25 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: During the regular season, the Eagles held opposing quarterbacks to 15.4 DraftKings points per game.

Isiah Pacheco Under 11.3 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: With the return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I doubt Pacheco will be used much in the receiving game.

Miles Sanders Under 11.25 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -115
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.15
• Notes: In only one game this year has Sanders hit the over without scoring a touchdown.

Dallas Goedert Under 12.3 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: Since returning to action in Week 16, Goedert is 0-for-5 on going over 12.3 DraftKings points.

Travis Kelce Under 19.3 DraftKings Points

• Odds: -110
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.1
• Notes: Kelce could have a good game and still not hit this number.

Eagles Under 148.5 Yards Rushing

• Odds: -115
• Sportsbook: PointsBet
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.15
• Notes: I have the Eagles projected for 135.1 rushing yards. I expect them to rely on the passing game more than they usually do.

Chiefs First Timeout of Game

• Odds: -115
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.15
• Notes: Chiefs HC Andy Reid is a great offensive schemer but horrible at clock management. He’s far likelier than Eagles HC Nick Sirianni to blow a timeout early in the game.

Chiefs First Punt Over 45.5 Yards

• Odds: -125
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.25
• Notes: Shoutout to Sean Koerner of the Action Network for first drawing my attention to this prop. The Chiefs have a first-team All-Pro in P Tommy Townsend, who was No. 2 in the league with 50.4 yards per punt. If the Chiefs are near the middle of the field, I expect them to be more aggressive with their fourth-down decision making, which means that whenever Townsend does come on for his first punt he’s likely to be in a “bomb it deep” situation instead of a “pin it inside the 10-yard line” situation. Plus, this game is indoors, and Glendale has an elevation of 1,152 feet.

Jalen Hurts Longest Completion Under 37.5 Yards

• Odds: -115
• Sportsbook: PointsBet
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.15
• Notes: In the NFC Championship, Hurts’ longest completion was a 29-yard incompletion. Since returning to action, Hurts hasn’t been nearly as aggressive or efficient in throwing downfield. He’s still dealing with his shoulder injury.

Chiefs First Coach’s Challenge of Game

• Odds: -120
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1.2
• Notes: Chiefs HC Andy Reid has used 11 coach’s challenges over the past two years. Over the past six years, he has had six-plus in every season but one. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni has 10 challenges since 2021, but just three in the past year.

Chiefs Over 2.5 Sacks

• Odds: +100
• Sportsbook: DraftKings
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1
• Notes: This year, the Chiefs were No. 2 in the league with 55 sacks, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts was No. 8 in the league with 2.5 sacks per game despite playing in a run-heavy offense.

No Punt Return Touchdown

• Odds: -2000
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1
• Notes: I would never put 20 units in action just to win one unit — but there’s still value in this bet, just as there tends to be value on the “no” side for a lot of Super Bowl props. In 272 games this regular season, we saw just three punt returned for a touchdown. The -2000 odds indicate that this bet has a 95.2% chance of cashing, but I think the true odds are closer to 99%.

No Score on Final Play

• Odds: -1000
• Sportsbook: Caesars
• Date: Feb. 9
• Units: 1
• Notes: Not that many games see a score on the final play of the game. The Super Bowl in fact might be decided on the final play — but that doesn’t mean we’ll see a score on that play.

No Successful Two-Point Conversion

• Odds: -275
• Sportsbook: BetMGM
• Date: Feb. 12
• Units: 1
• Notes: This regular season, we saw 56 successful two-point conversions in 272 games, which means that we had at least 216 games (79.4%) in which no two-point conversion was scored. At -275 odds, there’s a 73.3% implied probability of no two-point conversion, but I think the true odds are closer to 80%.

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