NASCAR Betting Picks for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Sep 26, 2021 - 10:18 AM

Three words are all it takes to sum up last week’s wild NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race: “It’s Bristol, baby!”. Indeed, Bristol happened, and so too did an epic, drama-filled playoff elimination race. Kyle Larson bagged his NASCAR Cup Series-leading sixth win of the season, and four drivers were eliminated from championship contention as the Round of 16 came to a close. Oh, and then there was the post-race war of words between fan-favorite Chase Elliott and veteran Kevin Harvick. For those living under a rock, the videos below will help get you up to speed.

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After all of that chaos, NASCAR now heads to Sin City to kick off the second round of the playoffs. The fourth annual South Point 400 will be run under the lights this Sunday evening at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. For the dozen drivers remaining in the playoffs, it is right back to the grindstone as they work to position themselves to advance on to the Round of 8 in three weeks’ time. With two unpredictable tracks following LVMS in this round, Sunday night could prove to be a make-or-break race for some. 

The following outlines some of the best NASCAR betting picks for Sunday evening’s South Point 400. Analysis of the top odds and picks to win outright is also included.

South Point 400 Best Bets

The following sections detail the top NASCAR betting picks for Sunday night’s race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Top 5 Finish: Brad Keselowski (+210 at DraftKings)

One common trend throughout the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season has been the Fords being a step behind. Although several of the Mustangs involved in the playoffs have been running better the last few weeks, Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing remain the teams to beat. All of that being said, if there’s any Ford that has a chance to crack the top-5 in the South Point 400, it would be the No. 2 of Brad Keselowski. In fact, there is actually a great chance of this happening. Since the start of the playoffs, Keselowski has posted finishes of seventh, fourteenth and sixth, respectively. He has been running more consistently than he had during the regular season and is now headed to a track where he has performed very well in the past.

Speaking to those past performances at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Keselowski has more wins (3) than any other active driver at the 1.5-mile track. His most recent victory came in the 2018 South Point 400. But Keselowski has done more than just reach victory lane in Sin City. Even when he isn’t lifting the trophy, he is one of the most consistent drivers at LVMS. Over the last ten races at Las Vegas, Keselowski has averaged a 4.7 finishing position, tops among all NASCAR Cup Series drivers. Six of those ten races have seen him finish inside of the top-5 including the Pennzoil 400 earlier this year. Essentially, we are getting better than 2-1 odds on Keselowski to achieve a result that he has averaged over the last ten races. When it comes to NASCAR betting value, that’s simply too good to pass up.

Top 3 Finish: William Byron (+400 at DraftKings) 

It took a top-3 finish last week at Bristol for William Byron to even advance out of the first round of the playoffs. Many people viewed him as being in must-win mode last weekend if he hoped to reach the Round of 12. Byron did it on points instead and now finds himself above the cutline after the standings reset thanks to the incredibly consistent year he had.

Among his solid runs was an eighth-place finish at Las Vegas back in the spring. That showing came one week after Byron scored his first (and only) win of the season to date at Homestead-Miami. While he may not have the goods to keep up with Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Kyle Larson, this Sunday, Byron has plenty going for him when it comes to his odds of scoring a top-3 finish. Perhaps one of the biggest arguments in Byron’s favor this weekend is the success of Chevrolets at the 550-horsepower tracks this season. LVMS fits that category, and we certainly know that Byron has premium equipment driving for HMS.

Of course, the No. 24 team also comes in with momentum. After overcoming adversity in the Round of 16 to survive and advance, Byron is still very much in the hunt for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. After being one of the most steady and consistent drivers all season, Byron’s first-round struggles have to be viewed as an anomaly. Finally, while he only finished eighth here in the spring, it’s worth noting that Byron was inside the top-5 for the majority of that race. This weekend, we’ll ride with him and aim to cash a 4-1 ticket on a South Point 400 top-3.

Best Finish in Group D: Ross Chastain (+290 at DraftKings)

We may not have hit our top-10 ticket with Ross Chastain last weekend, but it’s not time to abandon ship just yet. Given how poor both Chip Ganassi Racing Camaros were last Saturday at Bristol, the fact that Chastain still managed to finish 14th almost feels like a moral victory. Once again, Chastain outperformed teammate Kurt Busch, who was eliminated from the NASCAR Playoffs. After his top-3 run at Darlington and the seventh-place finish at Richmond, we can chalk last week’s 14th up to a failed weekend for the entire CGR organization. A rebound is almost certainly on tap in the South Point 400.

This week, Chastain finds himself in Group D along with three other non-playoff drivers. He has been running better than each of Matt DiBenedetto (+250), Tyler Reddick (+250) and Austin Dillon (+290) since the playoffs began. While he doesn’t have great historical stats at Las Vegas, keep in mind that Chastain has been in vastly inferior equipment compared to what he has in the No. 42 for Ganassi this season. This will be his second attempt at LVMS with solid equipment. Furthermore, this race will start before sundown and finish under the lights. All season long, the Ganassi cars have come on strong in primetime races after sunset when the track cools off. Look no further than Chastain’s drive at Darlington for proof. With momentum on his side, he is a great NASCAR betting pick to win this four-man horse race.

NASCAR Betting Odds to Win | Las Vegas

The table below offers a comparison of the NASCAR betting odds to win the South Point 400 across three major U.S. sportsbooks. The top 20 drivers in terms of odds are included.

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+330 at DraftKings)

Big shocker here, right? After his win last weekend at Bristol, Kyle Larson now has six victories this season. While it seems like ages ago, the first of those half-dozen wins came in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway back in the spring. Larson dominated that first race and has been the top driver in the NASCAR Cup Series ever since. Larson and the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets have been particularly stout at tracks where the 550-horsepower package is utilized. He is the runaway favorite to capture the season championship and might very well go back-to-back this Sunday to sweep both races at LVMS.

Value Bet: Martin Truex Jr. (+900 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

Behind Larson and Hendrick Motorsports, the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas have been the next best team all season long. In fact, one could make a real argument that JGR outperformed HMS in the first round of the NASCAR Playoffs. Truex was one of the bright spots, overcoming two penalties to win at Richmond two weeks ago. He also has a favorable history at LVMS. Truex's 6.0 average finish over the last ten races at the 1.5-mile track is the second-best among all Cup Series drivers over that span. He has a pair of wins over that span and six finishes of fourth or better. The No. 19 car was sixth in the Pennzoil 400 back in March. Expect MTJ to be a player on Sunday.

Longshot Hopeful: Brad Keselowski (+1700 at FanDuel)

For all of the same reasons laid out above to bet on Brad Keselowski for a top-5, he is also our longshot pick to win the South Point 400 outright. A win on Sunday would tie Keselowski with Jimmie Johnson for the most all-time at Las Vegas. Perhaps the biggest concern for him is that the Fords have been thoroughly outclassed when running the low-horsepower, high-downforce package this season. Well, they ran that same package here back in the spring and the No. 2 car still finished runner-up. Keselowski has LVMS figured out. With some better runs recently in the playoffs, don't be surprised if he earns his second win of the season this weekend.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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