Australian Open Men’s Final Match Odds, Picks and Betting Preview

Feb 19, 2021 - 11:35 PM

After two weeks of grueling matches featuring the best tennis players in the world, the 2021 Australian Open men’s champion is set to be crowned on Sunday. This year’s final features a 17-time major winner in Serbia’s Novak Djokovic, going up against arguably the hottest player in the world in Russian Daniil Medvedev. 

The match is set to get underway in the wee hours of Sunday morning here in the United States. Whether you are hitting the record button to take in the match over your Sunday morning breakfast or are among those who will find a way to stay up and watch it live, the Australian Open men’s final is one not to miss.

The tennis betting odds for this championship matchup are nearly dead even. Djokovic is currently the betting favorite, but the action is so close that both players have the odds in their favor at the time of writing. Will Djokovic continue his pursuit of the all-time record for grand slam championships? Or will Medvedev breakthrough for his first major title in just his second finals appearance? The following contains the match details, betting odds, and best bets for the Australian Open men’s final.

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Australian Open Men’s Final Details

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Daniil Medvedev
Date: Sunday, Feb. 21, 2021
Venue: Rod Laver Arena — Melbourne, AU
Start Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
Coverage: ESPN

Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Odds and Picks

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline: Djokovic: (-113) | Medvedev: (-104)
Games Spread: Djokovic: -1.5 (+112) | Medvedev: +1.5 (-132)
Total Games: 41.5 — Over: (-103) | Under: (-115)

Novak Djokovic is certainly likely to have a tougher challenge in the championship match than in the semifinals. The Joker cruised to a 6-3 6-4 6-2 straight-sets win over qualifier Aslan Karatsev. While the Cinderella run of Karatsev was certainly one of the great stories of this year’s Australian Open, he was no match for the world’s highest-ranked player. 

It’s been an interesting tournament Down Under overall for Djokovic this year. There was speculation as to whether he’d even be able to continue following an abdominal injury sustained in his third-round match. Nonetheless, Djokovic pushed through and once again finds himself in the final match. While that third-round contest against American Taylor Fritz was Djokovic’s only five-set match of the entire tournament, his semifinal win over Karatsev was also just his second straight-sets victory. Things haven’t exactly come easily, but the Joker is back in the championship match once again.

In a semifinal match that had much narrower betting odds compared to Djokovic’s aforementioned rout of Karatsev, Daniil Medvedev dominated in his own right. Perhaps taking advantage of a worn-down Stefanos Tsitsipas after he needed five sets to oust Nadal in the quarterfinals, Medvedev cruised to a 6-4 6-2 7-5 straight-sets win. The victory extended Medvedev’s ongoing winning streak to 20 straight matches. If he can stretch it one match further, he will claim his first grand slam title.

Medvedev has been doing more than just winning matches in Melbourne this year. He’s also been dominating them. Only once has he failed to close out an opponent in straight sets at this year’s Aussie Open. Filip Krajinovic took him the distance in the third round. His run includes relatively easy triumphs over a pair of top-10 seeds in Tsitsipas and quarterfinals opponent Andrey Rublev. At 25 years of age, Medvedev could very well be one of the future torch-bearers in men’s tennis in the coming years.

Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head History

This won’t be the first time that Djokovic and Medvedev have gone head-to-head. Entering Sunday’s Australian Open final, Djokovic has won four of the previous seven meetings between the two. However, their most recent clash was won by Medvedev in straight sets at last year’s ATP World Tour Finals. The two have met only once in a grand slam in the 2019 Australian Open Round of 16. Djokovic won that match in four sets.

Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction

One thing that strikes me about the head-to-head history between Djokovic and Medvedev is the absence of many drawn-out matches. Even in their regular tournament matches that extended to three sets, very rarely seen amidst the box scores are lengthy sets and tiebreakers. The lone grand slam data point that we have to go off from the 2019 Australian Open did feature a second-set tiebreak. Even with 13 games being played that set, Djokovic still won the match in four sets with 40 total games being played. 

In combining the head-to-head history with Medvedev’s supremely efficient play at the Australian Open this year, I’m inclined to believe that the total games line for this match is a bit too high. At 41.5, it’s completely rational when you consider the incredibly narrow gap in the match odds between the two. The betting market is expecting a drawn-out championship match that very well could go a full five sets. This isn’t out of the realm of possibilities, but I easily could see either player finishing the job in four as well. The market seems to agree with this as one would have to lay -265 to bet Under 4.5 total sets. With that, I’ll look to play Under on the total as my best match bet. 

Best Match Bet: Under 41.5 Total Games (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Other Picks to Consider

Set 1 Winner: Daniil Medvedev (-105)
Set 1 Total Games: Under 9.5 (+163)
Most Aces: Daniil Medvedev (-143)

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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