Australian Open Men’s Futures Odds, Handicapping Guide, and Early-Round Betting Picks (2022)

Jan 17, 2022 - 8:32 PM

The first tennis Grand Slam of 2022 is officially upon us. Over the next two weeks, the best men’s tennis players from across the globe will compete for the Norman Brooks Challenge Cup, awarded to the Australian Open champion. Of course, there was plenty of drama before the tournament even began this year. With two of the “Big Three” in men’s tennis not competing, the door has swung wide open for a new star to be born in the land down under. 

The following article provides all kinds of information to get you set for the first tennis major of the year. Read on for top Australian Open betting storylines, trends, handicapping details, and picks to consider for the early-round matches in the men’s draw.

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Australian Open Men’s Betting Overview

Sadly, a dark cloud has been cast over this year’s Australian Open tournament. Even those who might not consider themselves tennis fans have undoubtedly heard about the pre-tournament drama surrounding the best men’s player in the world. After being included in the initial draw, Serbia’s Novak Djokovic will not take part in the first Grand Slam of the calendar year.

After a judge initially ruled in Djokovic’s favor, he was allowed to remain in the country and even on Melbourne’s tennis grounds practicing before the tournament. The Australian government revoked his visa a second time, detained him and ultimately kicked him out of the country. After coming up one major title short of capturing the calendar Grand Slam a year ago, Djokovic will not even have the chance to attempt the feat in 2022.

Recent Australian Open Men’s Winners

For the first time since 2018, a man not named Novak Djokovic is guaranteed to win the Australian Open. Prior to the Djoker’s three-peat from 2019-21, Roger Federer won back-to-back titles in 2017 and ’18. Unfortunately, he is also not a part of this year’s tournament as he continues to rehab from knee surgery. This marks the second straight year that Federer will not be a part of the action in Melbourne. 

Only one other man besides Djokovic and Federer has hoisted the Norman Brooks Challenge Cup in the last decade. Switzerland’s Stanislas Wawrinka accomplished the feat back in 2014. However, he too withdrew from this year’s Aussie Open field. Thus, it has been all of 13 years since a player who is participating in the 2022 edition of the tournament won the Australian Open championship. That result came courtesy of Rafael Nadal all the way back in 2009.

  • 2021: Novak Djokovic
  • 2020: Novak Djokovic
  • 2019: Novak Djokovic
  • 2018: Roger Federer
  • 2017: Roger Federer
  • 2016: Novak Djokovic
  • 2015: Novak Djokovic
  • 2014: Stan Wawrinka
  • 2013: Novak Djokovic
  • 2012: Novak Djokovic
  • 2011: Novak Djokovic
  • 2010: Roger Federer
  • 2009: Rafael Nadal

Australian Open Men’s Betting Odds to Win the Tournament

As one might expect, the top of the Australian Open betting futures board looks quite a bit different this year without Djokovic in the field. The 2-seed in this year’s draw, Daniil Medvedev, went off as the pre-tournament favorite. For the first time in a long while, the Australian Open men’s betting favorite is not of the odds-on variety.

Refer to the following table, which contains the betting odds to win Wimbledon across three major U.S. Sportsbooks. Outright tournament betting odds for 15 of the top players are included. Further insight on three intriguing futures picks can be found below the odds table.

Player DraftKings BetMGM FanDuel
Daniil Medvedev +150 +150 +145
Alexander Zverev +300 +250 +270
Rafael Nadal +550 +550 +700
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2200 +1400 +1600
Jannick Sinner +2200 +2000 +1800
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia +2500 +2800 +3800
Matteo Berrettini +2500 +2500 +2100
Aslan Karatsev +3500 +4000 +5500
Andrey Rublev +5000 +3300 +3800
Felix Auger-Aliassime +6000 +4000 +5500
Gael Monfils +6500 +5000 +8500
Denis Shapovalov +8000 +8000 +8500
Casper Ruud +8000 +5000 +8500
Hubert Hurkacz +8000 +6600 +7000
Sebastian Korda +10000 +10000 +5500

 
Favorite: Daniil Medvedev (+150 at DraftKings and BetMGM)

25-year-old Russian Daniil Medvedev finished runner-up to Djokovic in last year’s Australian Open. With the Djoker kicked out of this year’s draw, it makes sense that Medvedev has been slotted in as the favorite on the futures board. He also comes in with momentum after winning the U.S. Open title last fall. Medvedev is at his best on the hard courts and is a deserving tournament favorite.

Value Bet: Rafael Nadal (+700 at FanDuel)

As the only player in this year’s Australian Open draw to have won the tournament in the last 15 years, Rafael Nadal will undoubtedly be among the popular futures bets. This will probably be his best chance to add a second Aussie Open title to his resume assuming the vaccine nonsense dies down a year from now. He is currently in a three-way tie with Djokovic and Federer for the most Grand Slam titles all-time. Nadal is the only one of the three who has a shot to grab Slam No. 21 in Melbourne.

Longshot Hopeful: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+2200 at DraftKings)

The 4-seed in this year’s draw, Greece’s Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Australian Open Semifinals in two of the last three years. The 23-year-old outlasted Nadal in an unforgettable Quarterfinal match a year ago, but could not overcome the resulting fatigue against Medvedev two days later. Based on his portion of the draw, one has to believe Tsitsipas has a great chance to make it back to the final four. DraftKings surprisingly lists him at the same 22-1 futures price as 11-seed Jannick Sinner. Tsitsipas has won two of their three previous matchups and figures to be favored in the event that the two go head-to-head in the Fourth Round.

Hard Court Surface Handicapping Notes

Two of the four Grand Slams are played on hard courts and fittingly so given that it is the predominant playing surface on the ATP Tour. The construction of tennis hard courts involves placing synthetic or acrylic layers on top of a concrete or asphalt foundation. In terms of speed, hard courts tend to fall somewhere between medium-fast and fast. Much like grass courts, there is little absorption of volleys by the playing surface itself.

The speed of rebounds and bounces on hard courts is specifically determined by the amount of sand is in the synthetic/acrylic surface layer. More sand will result in a slower bounce due to a greater level of friction. The hard court surface favors players with big, powerful serves and flat volleys. 

Australian Open Men’s Early-Round Betting Picks

The following sections discuss some of the best tennis betting picks for the early rounds of the Australian Open Men’s tournament. 

All early-round betting odds taken from DraftKings.

First Round Match: Liam Broady vs. Nick Kyrgios — Kyrgios to Win 3:0 (+200)

The aggressive, hard-hitting playing style of Nick Kyrgios certainly suits him well on the hard courts. While he has failed to replicate his 2015 Quarterfinals appearance in Melbourne, the Australian native remains one of the most entertaining players in the men’s game today. He matches up with Britain’s Liam Broady in the First Round of this year’s draw. Broady comes in with a losing professional record on the ATP Tour and earned a spot in the field as a qualifier. He figures to be overmatched against Kyrgios, who notably earned a straight-sets win over a qualifier in the opening round of last year’s tournament. 

Second Round Match: Stefan Kozlov vs. Matteo Berrettini — Berrettini to Win 3:0 (-135)

After his incredible 2021 campaign, the Australian Open is now the only Grand Slam at which Matteo Berrettini has yet to reach the Quarterfinals. That could very well change this year, and the hard-hitting Italian certainly has the potential to go even further given the depleted draw. After dropping the opening set of his First Round match, Berrettini steadied and earned a 3:1 victory over Brandon Nakashima. His Second Round opponent, Russian Stefan Kozlov, qualified for this, his first tennis major as a Wild Card. He may have surprised Jiri Vesely in the opening round, but Kozlov will offer little resistance for the well-rounded game of Berrettini.

Second Round Match: Yannick Hanfmann vs. Rafael Nadal — Under 29.5 Total Games (+100)

If Rafael Nadal hopes to add a second Australian Open title to his incredible career resume, this year might be his best chance to do so. The 6-seed in the 2022 draw started his march with a straight-sets win over Marcos Giron in the First Round. He will face German qualifier Yannick Hanfmann in the Second Round. At age 30, it’s not like Hanfmann is an up-and-comer looking for his breakout. He has a career record of 25-28 on the ATP Tour. 

Nadal beat Hanfmann in straight sets at the 2019 French Open in their only previous head-to-head meeting. While that match came on Nadal’s personal playground, the clay court surface, it still only took him 24 total games to achieve the victory. Hanfmann would practically have to steal a set to prevent this Aussie Open match from going beyond 29 games. The even-money price on the under is too good to pass up.

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.

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