U.S. Open 2022: Men’s Semifinals Preview and Prediction

Sep 8, 2022 - 10:32 AM

Once American Frances Tiafoe beat Rafael Nadal in the Round of 16, it marked just the second time since 2005 that one of the “Big Three” (Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer) did not reach the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam. Not only was history made on that front, but with this collection of four semi-finalists, we are guaranteed to have a first-time major champion hoist the trophy on Sunday. Thus, it is an exciting time in men’s tennis, as we could be witnessing a changing of the guard after the “Big Three’s” dominance for almost two decades.

Read on for our thoughts and predictions for the two Men’s semifinal matches at the 2022 U.S. Open.

Karen Khachanov vs. Casper Ruud

Fatigue will not be as much of an issue for No. 27 seed Karen Khachanov given that he has had two days off to recover from consecutive grueling five-set wins over No. 12 seed Pablo Carreno Busta and No. 23 seed Nick Kyrgios. Beating Kyrgios was no small feat considering he was the favorite to win the tournament after beating world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev. Most marvel at the Australian’s big serve, but Khachanov matched his serve-for-serve with 30 aces to Kyrgios’ 31. Khachanov also hit 63 winners, and the most significant difference was his ability to play consistently, as Kyrgios went wayward with 58 unforced errors.

No. 5 seed Casper Ruud had never made it past the fourth round at a major before this semifinal run. Though he did not play in the first Grand Slam of the year after (he withdrew from the Australian Open with an ankle injury), he has shown he is not afraid of the big stage, with a 12-2 record in majors this year. Ruud can replace Medvedev as world No. 1 if he wins the U.S. Open title, which is something that is clearly motivating him.

Khachanov is 1-8 in his last nine ATP semifinals, but his previous six completed main draw matches have gone over 3.5 sets. Given that he has also covered the game spread in his last four matches, we expect him to play tough against Ruud, even though Ruud is a worthy -205 moneyline favorite.

Bet: Ruud to win 3 Sets to 1 (+330 at DraftKings)  

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Frances Tiafoe vs. Carlos Alcaraz

If there is such a thing as home court advantage in tennis, Frances Tiafoe will feel it in full effect on Friday. The U.S. Open crows will likely be in full support of Tiafoe, as he is the only American man or woman left competing in singles.

Tiafoe added his name to the history books when he beat Rafael Nadal in the Round of 16, as he became just the seventh American player to defeat one of the “Big Three” at a Grand Slam (the third to beat Nadal). He also has the advantage of playing much less tennis than Carlos Alcaraz. Tiafoe won his quarterfinal match in straight sets, while Alcaraz was on the court until almost 3:00 a.m. ET Thursday morning, locked in a five-set match against Jannik Sinner that took 56 games and five hours to complete.

Each of Alcaraz’s last six ATP semifinal matches has gone over the projected total, and Tiafoe is 3-0 in his previous three ATP main draw matches as an underdog. So while we are not backing Tiafoe to win outright, we do like him to cover the +1.5 set spread, just in case he becomes Alcaraz’s latest five-set victim.

Bet: Frances Tiafoe +1.5 Sets (-130 at DraftKings) 

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