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Baylor Bears (27-6, 14-4 Big 12) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (25-9, 15-5 ACC)
Odds courtesy of Draftkings
Baylor may have been teetering along the line to be a No.1 seed prior to the tournament, but they certainly looked like one in their opening-round game. However, the Tar Heels looked very impressive in their first matchup as well. How impassive, you ask? Well, North Carolina won by 32, and Baylor won by 36. So, with two red hot teams set to square off against one another, all that’s left to do is determine how this one plays out.
For all the adversity, peaks, and valleys that the Bears went through, they’re still standing and are in a prime position to repeat as national champions. The matchup against Norfolk State was a vintage Baylor performance. They shot 57 percent from the field and held Norfolk State to 30 percent shooting. A repeat of that performance against the Tar Heels is unlikely, but the Bears should have no problem continuing to roll on offense.
We have seen the Tar Heels have dreadful performances defensively this season, and their effective field goal percentage shows that. North Carolina is 154th in that category. That could spell trouble against the Bears, who are the eighth-best offense in the country, in terms of offensive efficiency and have an entire lineup of offensive weapons.
The Tar Heels are a team that has the potential to beat anyone with their explosive offense, and that was on full display against Marquette. It was the three-point shooting of Caleb Love and Brady Manek that widened the gap in a hurry. They combined to go 11-23 from behind the arc and totaled 51 of the team’s 93 points. Let’s not forget that they also possess one of the most imposing big men in the country in Armando Bacot. Bacot is a vacuum on the boards. He averaged over 12 rebounds per game and had multiple 20 rebound performances, but he can also be an offensive weapon as he averaged nearly 17 points per contest.
For all the firepower that the Heels have, Baylor is one of the teams that could stifle them. The Bears are 18th in three-point percentage allowed and are an excellent rebounding team in their own right. However, Flo Thamba will have the task of containing Bacot down low, and that matchup could decide the game if North Carolina’s outside shots are not falling.
North Carolina may become the trendy pick after how impressive they were against Marquette. However, their offensive approach has a lot of volatility to it. Baylor is a well-coached team that plays excellent team defense and can compete with Bacot on the glass. As for the other end of the floor, the Bears should be able to get plenty of open looks. Guys like Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer could have big performances from behind the arc. For those reasons, I’m backing the Bears here.
Pick: Baylor -5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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