An offseason of tranquility for the Phillies

Nov 2, 2008 - 12:27 AM By Tom Covill PA SportsTicker Assistant Baseball Editor

It must be nice to be the Philadelphia Phillies right now, with the trophy still shining from the organization's first World Series victory in 28 years.

The Phillies rolled in a Halloween parade on Friday, where they were showered with love and cheers by two million fans that had been desperately craving a championship.

The City of Brotherly Love is sitting pretty at the top of the Major League Baseball universe. But when the celebration cools, the hot stove begins to cook, and Philadelphia has decisions to make just like any other club.

General manager Pat Gillick, who was among those parading, is the first order of business.

The 71-year-old three-time champion executive was pulled out of retirement by the Phillies three years ago and is expected to drift back into a life without baseball at the end of the season. Gillick appeared to have a change of heart on the World Series podium on Wednesday, leaving the door open for his return, but odds are he walks away on a high.

His replacement should be named before Monday if the organization wants to have a front row seat at the general managers meetings in Dana Point, California.

Longtime assistant Ruben Amaro, Jr. appears to be the front-runner for the job and would seemingly provide a smooth transition for the baseball operations department.

Amaro or any other replacement will have a few key decisions to make this offseason if they want to make Philadelphia to repeat as champion.

Only two players from the World Series roster are eligible for free agency, but they are both key cogs - left fielder Pat Burrell and No. 3 starter Jamie Moyer.

Moyer, 45, could choose to retire but is coming off a season in which he posted a 16-7 record and a 3.71 ERA. If he wants to come back, the Phillies would probably be the first and only choice for the Pennsylvania native.

Burrell is a trickier case. With the national economy spinning out of control and Burrell likely to be looking for a long-term deal at a big sticker price, Philadelphia may have to bite hard and let go of its longest-tenured player.

The 32-year-old Burrell was the No. 1 overall pick by the Phillies in the 1998 draft but has never been completely embraced by the fans despite being a lock for 30 home runs and 90 RBI every season.

His defense has been declining for years and he has never struck out less than 120 times, making him a great candidate for an American League team that could move him to designated hitter in a few years.

To come back to Philadelphia, Burrell will probably have to settle for a deal no longer than three or four seasons in the $10-14 million per year range.

Part of the problem for Burrell this winter will be a wealth of one-dimensional left fielders joining the free agent pool, including Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn and Raul Ibanez, each of whom could be an option for the World champions on a short-term, big-money deal.

If they decide to stay in-house, rookie speedster Greg Golson could form the righthanded part of a platoon, with veterans Matt Stairs and Geoff Jenkins batting from the left side of the plate.

The Phillies will also be in the market for a starting pitcher whether Moyer returns or not. The No. 5 spot in the rotation this season was pieced together between Kyle Kendrick, Adam Eaton and rookie J.A. Happ, none of whom have shutdown potential.

With some regression due from both Moyer and Blanton, who went 6-0 in 16 starts for Philadelphia including the playoffs, the organization should be looking for a No. 2 or 3 starter on the free agent market.

The best fit would be veteran righthander Derek Lowe, an innings-eating sinkerball pitcher who would not be afraid of Citizens Bank Park's cozy dimensions because of his ability to induce groundballs. Lowe, 35, has made at least 32 starts in each of the last seven seasons and posted a 3.24 ERA for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2008.

Lowe would also be benefited by the Phillies' superior defense up the middle, with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley forming the slickest-fielding middle infield in the NL.

If they miss out on Lowe, who could have 10-15 teams bidding for his services, other options in the middle-tier of starters include Jon Garland, Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf. Bigger prices would have to be paid for the likes of Ben Sheets, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Ryan Dempster.

The bullpen was an unquestioned strength of the team this season, evidenced by an NL-low 3.19 ERA and a team record of 87-0 when leading after the eighth inning.

But that unit is due for at least some regression next year, and a new arm or two might help limit the slide.

By the end of the playoffs, only Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge were being used in high-leverage roles while Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre and Clay Condrey were saved for specific matchups or mop-up duty.

Lidge finished the regular season 41-for-41 in save opportunities, a mark he can't be expected to match next season. Just three losses, which still would have been better than the league average, would have put the Phillies' playoff berth in jeopardy.

Going into the free-agent market in search of relievers is rarely a good thing, so the Phillies could choose to break in top prospect Carlos Carrasco in the bullpen early in 2009, or hope for a Madson-like breakthrough from another pitcher or two.

On the infield, Philadelphia could use upgrades behind the plate and at third base, where Carlos Ruiz and Pedro Feliz currently form a highly unproductive offensive tandem. Some clutch hits in the World Series notwithstanding, Ruiz and Feliz posted .620 and .705 OPS numbers, respectively, during the regular season - among the worst in the NL at their positions.

The Phillies could kick the tires on Joe Crede or Casey Blake for third base.

Behind the plate, Philadelphia is lucky enough to be one of the few organizations with some significant depth. Lou Marson got some major league plate appearances in September and could be ready by mid-2009, while backup Chris Coste is a capable hitter.

Whatever the Phillies choose to do on the free agent or trade markets, coming back will be a core of Utley, Rollins, Ryan Howard, Lidge, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Brett Myers and Cole Hamels, making them one of the favorites in the NL once again.