NBA Playoff Preview - Houston vs. Dallas

Apr 17, 2015 - 5:30 PM (SportsNetwork.com) - Nothing like an old-fashioned Texas tussle in the postseason.

The Houston Rockets won the Southwest Division for the first time since this realignment took place 10 years ago. They did it on the last day of the season and they boast an MVP candidate in James Harden.

The Mavericks collected another 50-win season, but only finished seventh, a slot they were pegged in for much of the final weeks of the regular season.

These teams haven't met in the postseason in 10 years. Dallas won that first- round matchup in seven games, but a lot has changed since then.

The Mark Cuban/Dirk Nowitzki era Mavericks finally won a title and remained a deep threat in the postseason. Since that first-round war with Dallas 10 years ago, Houston has made the playoffs five times since, but advanced just once.

There's pressure on the Rockets. This unit, led by Harden and Dwight Howard, has been together just two seasons, but a first-round upset last season by the Portland Trail Blazers has Houston in need of some series victories.

Winning the Southwest Division was a major accomplishment. The Memphis Grizzlies led through much of the campaign and the defending NBA champion San Antonio Spurs charged emphatically late in the season.

But Harden kept them afloat. Those in the Harden-for-MVP camp (myself included), champion the fact that the Beard earned this team of role players a No. 2 seed. Howard missed exactly half the season with knee injuries and the next-leading scorer for the Rockets after Harden and Howard was Trevor Ariza at 12.8 ppg.

The team lost starting point guard and All-Defensive second-teamer Patrick Beverley to a wrist injury. Donatas Motiejunas, who really emerged with full- time minutes, is done because of a back problem.

Yet, through it all, Harden got them a division title, the franchise's first since winning the Midwest Division back in 1993-94. Center Clint Capela was born weeks after they clinched that title under the stewardship of Hakeem Olajuwon.

The Rockets were the sixth-best scoring offense in the league. Defensively, they were average. They'll need to be better against the Mavs, the NBA's fifth-most efficient offense.

Dallas was first early in the season in that category, but made a major acquisition in the form of All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo. Things didn't go smoothly as the offense sputtered and Rondo butted heads with coach Rick Carlisle, which is nothing new in Rondo's career.

Nowitzki is still a premiere player, especially with that one-footed, high- arching fadeaway. Monta Ellis led the team in scoring and Chandler Parsons was very good in his first season with the Mavs. He signed in Dallas this past offseason after playing with the Rockets, thus adding to the intrigue.

Tyson Chandler is still excellent defensively. Amare Stoudemire has even been very good off the bench.

The Mavs were a trendy pick as an upset special earlier in the season, but finished a little weakly. They were under .500 since late February and the glow on the Mavericks has dimmed some.

"I've got great confidence in our team. And the fact that the period since the All-Star break has been difficult is something that helps us," Carlisle said. "Even though we haven't played our best all the time, we've played rugged opponents for 27 games now since the break, and we've had to earn every win."

MATCHUPS:

BACKCOURT: Harden was extraordinary. He averaged 27.4 ppg, 7.0 apg, 5.7 rpg, 1.9 steals per game all while shooting 87 percent from the foul line, 37.5 percent from the 3-point line and 44 percent from the field. He attempted 10.2 free throws per game and, his once-laughable defense, improved. Harden carried the Rockets. There's no other way to say it. When Howard was down, Harden carried them to wins. When Beverley went down, he played facilitator. Heck, even when Beverley was there, Harden ran the offense. He is capable of carrying a team to postseason victories all by the hair on his chinny chin chin. Jason Terry will start at the other guard spot, but is long past his expiration date as a starter. He is still a capable 3-point shooter, has bucket loads of postseason experience and a swagger that is valuable this time of year.

Ellis continues to be under-appreciated. The theory is people still remember the selfish player in Golden State and Milwaukee, but Ellis averaged 18.9 ppg, 4.1 apg and shot 44.5 percent from the floor. He's a very talented scorer and a good one in pressure moments. Rondo is the wild-card. In him, Carlisle has maybe the smartest player in the league, although a temperamental one. Rondo did nothing to improve Dallas' offense since his arrival. However, Rondo has as much postseason experience as any guard in the league. When properly motivated, can Rondo still be an elite passer and defender, two traits he hasn't displayed in Big D? Without that, it's hard to imagine Rondo being a tremendous difference-maker. He can't shoot from the perimeter and his defense has regressed over time.

EDGE: HOUSTON

FRONTCOURT: Howard was alright when he was healthy. He's no longer a dominant interior force offensively, but he can certainly still alter shots on the defensive end and he's still a double-digit rebounder per game. If Howard's minutes are still restricted come playoff time, it could be a problem because Houston does not have good depth in terms of big men. Trevor Ariza was a great addition to this team. He's an infinitely better defensive player than Parsons, who, Ariza will most likely be guarding this series. Ariza started and played in every game this season and averaged 12.8 ppg. His 35 percent 3- point shooting was down from recent campaigns, but during the playoffs last season with Washington, he shot 44 percent from long range. Terrence Jones is a capable player, who most likely won't see as many crunch-time minutes as Josh Smith, or Corey Brewer. Jones was pretty solid in the division-clinching finale with 15 points in 20 minutes.

Nowitzki is timeless. He played 77 games, averaged 17.3 points and almost six rebounds. He is still difficult to guard with his size and the apex of his shot. Is he tired from so many games? Maybe not, because he didn't average 30 minutes a night. Chandler is such an important part of this team. This group didn't recover when he left via free agency after the title in 2011. He owns the paint. He's a communicator in the back line of the defense and grabbed 11.5 rebounds per game. The blocked shots aren't there as much, but he's still a force at the basket. Parsons was good, but the concern is about his health. He missed the last six games of the regular season with a knee issue. He should be ready for Saturday's series-opener.

EDGE: MAVERICKS

BENCH: The Rockets finished 23rd in bench scoring, but that's a tad misleading. Houston suffered so many injuries, players were plugged in unexpected roles. However, there's no denying Motiejunas' absence will hurt. He's a great spacer on the floor. Smith signed after his shocking release from the Detroit Pistons and fit in well. He scored well enough, rebounded decently, didn't jack up an unreasonable amount of 3's and didn't rock the boat. Brewer is a good player. He scores close to 12 a game, but is not a reliable long-range shooter. Pablo Prigioni is backup point guard now. He's a tenacious defender, even for his age, and can manage a game to give Harden and Terry a blow.

The Mavs' second unit is a very dependable group. Stoudemire came over and has played a nice role as a different-look scoring option in the pivot. He can't replace Brandan Wright defensively. J.J. Barea is a score-first point guard who can score. Al-Farouq Aminu is an energetic hand. Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva have even contributed some. Devin Harris is Dallas' best bench player, but his toe injury could keep him out of at least Game 1. He's vital to any chance for the Mavericks.

EDGE: EVEN

COACHING: Rockets coach Kevin McHale was thought to be on the hot seat after last year's upset in the first round. He brought the team a division title and earned a contract extension. McHale also did it without Howard for half the season, without Beverley for a quarter of it, without Jones for a huge chunk and with the midseason additions of his three most important reserves. He's done a very good job with this group. It's not sophisticated in Houston. Harden does his thing, makes everyone better and the Rockets win.

Carlisle is a genius coach. He's not the first to butt heads with Rondo, but he uses his team's strength to its advantage. Carlisle's offense is sophisticated, and, as a former NBA Championship-winning coach, nothing will rattle him in the months of April and May, maybe even June.

EDGE: MAVERICKS

PREDICTION: This is an even matchup.

Does Harden have enough left in the tank to will this group to a first-round victory? That's the biggest question facing Houston.

For Dallas, it all comes down to Rondo. If he plays at an elite level, the Mavericks could easily upset the Rockets. (Houston did win three of four this season and one in Dallas.)

This has the makings of a long series.

"Dallas will be tough. Rick is a helluva coach and they've got a good team. We're going to have to play how we play and attack them. I'm sure it will be a good series," McHale said.

The Mavs won four of five heading into the postseason while nothing could improve their standing. Is that enough good play to forget the second half? Probably not.

SPORTS NETWORK PREDICTION: HOUSTON in SEVEN