Rotisserie By The Numbers: NFL

Dec 3, 2008 - 9:09 PM By Craig Rondinone PA SportsTicker Contributing Writer

Most fantasy football leagues have a week or two remaining in their regular seasons before their postseasons begin. This is not the time to pull a Norv Turner when putting together your starting lineup.

Play an inaccurate kicker and it could cost you a fantasy playoff berth. Stick in a quarterback that sticks you with three interceptions and your title dreams could be dashed just like New Orleans' were this past weekend. Use the wrong running back and your fantasy squad could become a Detroit Lions-like laughingstock.

I have received many e-mails this week from readers who asked to help them decide between two players for one lineup spot. I do not mind playing the role of tiebreaker, although the final decision always comes down to the fantasy owner. You have to take a lot of things into consideration when choosing between two seemingly even players, including opponents, injuries, weather and playing time. Oh, and of course, which player is more talented is kind of important.

Here are a few of the tough lineup choices some fantasy football owners asked me about this week, and what advice I offered:

LenDale White or Ronnie Brown: White was the forgotten man - literally - two weeks ago when he carried the ball only three times and was bored stiff on the bench against the New York Jets. But instead of taking Top Turkey honors on Thanksgiving, White re-emerged and ran roughshod against the pitiful Lions for 106 yards and two touchdowns, his best effort in six weeks. Now a lot of that work came in the second half when the game was out of reach, and White is still playing second-fiddle to Chris Johnson, but his Tennessee team faces another cupcake this weekend when Cleveland rolls into town with third-string quarterback Ken Dorsey. That means White is bound to rack up more yards and scores in the second half once again.

Brown has been revitalized by Miami's "wildcat" offense and has been one of the best backs for touchdowns (10) this year. But because he is sharing the load with Ricky Williams in the backfield, and because Chad Pennington is throwing more passes than he has in a long time, Brown's yardage totals have been hurt by his lack of 20-carry contests. He has only rushed for more than 60 yards once over the past eight games, including a 14-carry, 43-yard performance at home against this week's opponent, the Buffalo Bills.

White's opponent is weaker than Brown's, White plays at home while Brown has a road game in that NFL hotbed, Toronto (special Buffalo home game). White and Brown should receive the same amount of rushing attempts, but something tells me White will be able to do more with his chances than Brown will, so White is my choice here.

Kurt Warner or Tony Romo: It is hard to believe there are fantasy owners lucky enough to own both of these stat monsters, but I have been e-mailed three times this week about which one of these Pro Bowlers to start, so I guess there are plenty of people with rabbit's feet out there. Both Warner and Romo are quarterbacks who should be used every week in fantasy leagues. It does not matter who they are playing against. Warner and Romo can throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns versus any defense.

So if you are like me and rate Romo and Warner a draw if all things are equal, you have to narrow it down to who has the easier opposing defense. Well, this makes the decision simple. Romo is up against the No. 1 pass defense (and No. 1 overall defense) in the NFL, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh only allows 166 passing yards per game and has shut down Philip Rivers (159 yards, two INTs), Jason Campbell (206 yards, two INTs) and Matt Cassel (169 yards, two INTs). Peyton Manning threw for 240 yards and three touchdowns against the Steelers, but other than that aberration, no pass defense has been better. And Romo has to battle this staunch defense in Pittsburgh, so Mother Nature might be a 12th man for the Steelers.

Meanwhile, Warner is at home in the desert, where he is averaging 305 yards and two-plus touchdowns per game, and better yet he is matched against the hapless, hopeless St. Louis Rams, whose burnt secondary is 22nd in the league in pass defense. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald should be racing by the Rams' corners and safeties like a pair of greyhounds. While I think Romo could still have a decent day (think 200 yards, one TD, one INT), Warner should have a monster day (think 350 yards and four TDs). Warner is my choice.

Peyton Hillis or Ryan Grant: It does not matter who Denver sticks at running back. Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell and Reuben Droughns have proved this in the past. Now after the four, count 'em, FOUR running backs on the depth chart ahead of him have suffered serious injuries, Darren McFadden and Felix Jones' former blocking back at Arkansas is putting up numbers better than both of his former teammates. Hillis might sound like a character on "Gossip Girl," but he is a battering ram of a back who runs downhill and is tough to tackle up high.

I'd feel safer going clubbing with Plaxico Burress than using Grant this week. He has a sprained thumb that has to be placed in a splint. That should make carrying the football a lot of fun. And although Grant has been running well lately and he is scheduled to run against a soft Houston Texans defense this weekend, backup Brandon Jackson is more than capable of filling in for him if Grant cannot go. Something tells me that Grant will play but will split the carries with Jackson, meaning 60 yards and a touchdown is the best you could hope for from him. Hillis plays Kansas City at home and looks destined to run for 80 yards and a touchdown trip at worst. Hillis is my choice.

RUN AND SHOOT:

Washington tight end Chris Cooley has gotten naked on the Internet as many times as he has reached the end zone this season - once. That does not make Cooley's fantasy owners happy, especially in touchdown leagues where Cooley was probably drafted very high considering he scored 27 times over his first four seasons. But the numbers are not all bad for him. Cooley should easily set a career high in receiving yards this season. His previous best was 786 yards in 2007, but he already stands at 701 yards this season and still has four games remaining.

Kansas City quarterback Tyler Thigpen is making fantasy owners forget all about the injury-prone, dynamically dumb duo of Brodie Croyle and Damon Huard, and he definitely is making a valid case to be KC's starting quarterback in 2009. The former third-stringer has a 13-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, which ranks him ahead of supposed stalwarts like Ben Roethlisberger, David Garrard, Matt Cassel and Jake Delhomme. But what has set Thigpen apart from other fantasy QBs is not his arm but his legs. He leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards despite playing in just 10 of the Chiefs' 12 games and starting only seven of them.

For more info on Craig's columns, visit publishedauthors.net/craigrondinone and suite101.com.