Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Monday, June 28th (2021)

Jun 28, 2021 - 11:09 AM

There are just 11 games on today’s Major League Baseball slate, but National League fans will be treated to a trio of high-profile series openers. Every National League division’s first and second place teams meet on Monday night, and though it is only late June, each of those series openers will have an October feel. The Mets own the biggest lead of any division in baseball and look to put more of a cushion between them and the Nationals. The Brewers have separated themselves from the Cubs, but Chicago can earn a tie for first place if they sweep their road series against Milwaukee. Lastly, the Giants still feel they need to prove to people that they are for real and can do so on the road at Dodger Stadium.

Do any of these games interest us from a betting perspective?

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 95-80-3 (+5.78 units)

Cincinnati Reds -1.5 runs (+123)

With the two teams in the division that are ahead of them playing each other, the Cincinnati Reds look to gain ground in the NL Central. They face a Phillies team that salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Mets but is a series Philadelphia could have swept if not for some bullpen meltdowns. With Phillies starter Spencer Howard unable to eat innings lately, the Reds will get plenty of chances against Philadelphia’s beleaguered bullpen.

Howard (0-2, 5.59) has not pitched more than four innings in any of his eight appearances this year. He has allowed five earned runs in his last 5.2 innings against two of baseball’s top-four offenses in the Giants and Dodgers. Expect similar struggles when facing a Reds team that ranks seventh in the majors with 4.89 runs per game. Philadelphia’s bullpen ERA is 4.44, which ranks 21st in the majors. That is not a good recipe for success against a Cincinnati team that hits well at home.

The Reds are 4-1 in starting pitcher Wade Miley’s (6-4, 2.85) last five starts. That includes an 11-1 Reds victory over the Phillies on May 31 when Miley held Philadelphia to just one run on six hits over six innings. The Reds are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against the Phillies and should take care of a Philadelphia team that is just 2-9 in their previous 11 series openers.

Cubs-Brewers UNDER 7 runs (-107)

Given that the Chicago Cubs are just 16-23 on the road this year, bettors should be hesitant to pull the trigger on their moneyline odds against the Milwaukee Brewers. However, one should want no part of opposing Chicago’s red-hot Kyle Hendricks, so the under makes the most sense in this matchup.

Hendricks (10-4, 3.84) has won each of his last eight starts and has not allowed more than three earned runs in that span. He enters this game on a 12-inning scoreless streak and has a 12:2 K:BB ratio in his last two starts. Current Milwaukee hitters are hitting a combined .220 and slugging just .299 in 177 career plate appearances against Hendricks. He is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA in 12 career starts at Miller Park and has 16 strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings there.

Milwaukee counters with Freddy Peralta (7-2, 2.11), who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight straight starts. He is coming off a season-high ten strikeout performance in just six innings in his last start, and he has a 1.55 ERA in eight home appearances this year. 

The under is 6-0-1 in Chicago’s last seven games and is 4-0-1 in Peralta’s last five starts against teams with a winning record. Look for a low-scoring contest in this opener.

Minnesota Twins ML (+123)

The Chicago White Sox have struggled of late, losing seven of their last nine games. Their once explosive offense has been tamed recently, scoring more than three runs just twice in that nine-game span. They host a Twins team that has won seven of their last nine games and who is breaking out offensively with seven or more runs in four of their previous five games. So tonight’s series opener is an excellent opportunity to take a chance on the road underdogs.

White Sox starter Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.80) has struggled against the Twins. In 14 career starts, he is 5-7 with a 4.74 ERA against them, and that ERA is his highest against any AL Central opponent. Though he won his last start against them earlier this year, Giolito was pounded for 12 earned runs in 14.2 innings against them last year, going 0-2 in the three starts. 

Minnesota’s Kenta Maeda (3-2, 4.85) is no stranger to pitching on the road this year, as eight of his 11 starts have come on the road. He allowed three earned runs over five innings in a road start against the White Sox on May 11 and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts. 

The Twins have not won any of their last four games in Chicago but are 4-0 in their previous four road games, and their good career numbers against Giolito are reason enough to take a chance on them tonight.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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