Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 4th (2021)

Aug 4, 2021 - 12:13 PM

Perhaps no regular-season game is more anticipated than tonight’s Dodgers-Astros game, as Max Scherzer makes his debut in Los Angeles. The additions of Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals shortened Los Angeles’s already low odds of winning the pennant and the World Series, and now fans across the league will get a sense of how feared the Dodgers should be with their new talented arm on the mound. 

While we prefer to sit back and watch that game as an interested onlooker, we have three other bets in mind, including two team totals and a runline bet. Will these three wagers result in our fourth consecutive profitable day?

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 124-110-5 (-0.14 units)

Baltimore Orioles Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-120)

Last week we rode New York Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon’s hot streak to a cash in his previous start, correctly predicted he would do his part in holding the Miami Marlins under their team total. We are back to do the same in this start against a Baltimore Orioles team that has scored just 20 more runs on the season than Miami, and that does not rank much better than the Marlins in terms of batting average and OPS.

Taillon (7-4, 4.11) is a blazing 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last seven starts. He has not lost a decision since May 31st and has lowered his ERA from a season-high of 7.56 over the previous three months. The most impressive part of Taillon’s surge is that four of his last five starts have come on the road, and he has faced two of the American League’s highest-scoring offenses(Astros and Red Sox) three times in that span. After tying a season-high with nine strikeouts five starts ago, Taillon has pitched to contact more in his last four starts. However, he has not allowed more than five hits in any of the previous five starts and has done a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the ballpark with two home runs allowed in his last five starts.

Baltimore’s Matt Harvey (6-10, 6.20) has been on a similar hot streak, entering this start with no runs and ten hits allowed in his last 18.1 innings. With Harvey an excellent bet to keep New York’s scoring down, Taillon will be extra focused in his time on the mound, and manager Aaron Boone will likely use his best stable of relievers after Taillon exits.

The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams, which has us confident that Taillon will do his part in keeping Baltimore’s scoring down.

Toronto Blue Jays Team Total OVER 5.5 runs (-120)

While we are confident that Taillon will pitch well for the Yankees, this wager is a fade of Cleveland Indians starter J.C. Mejia. Mejia (1-6, 7.60) has lost five of his last seven starts and has pitched to an 8.91 ERA in that span. In addition, he has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his previous seven starts and has allowed seven home runs in that span.

Mejia faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks tied for first in the majors with 162 home runs and leads all teams with a .786 OPS. Toronto accomplished all this while playing all but five of their games away from their true home in Canada. Now, their offense will have time to get readjusted to the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre.

The Indians are 0-6 in Mejia’s last six starts against teams with a winning record and are winless in his previous five starts overall. So take the steep moneyline odds out of the equation and opt for an offensive explosion from the home favorites.

San Francisco Giants -1.5 runs (-110)

With Mets ace Jacob deGrom’s historical season halted by injuries for the last month and his return not likely until September, San Francisco Giants starter Kevin Gausman is creeping up the odds list for the NL Cy Young Award. At DraftKings, Gausman entered yesterday with the fourth-best odds (+425) to win the Cy Young, and he will be a big reason why the Giants regain the lead in this four-game series.

San Francisco leads the head-to-head season series 10-2. This year, Gausman (9-5, 2.35) has faced Arizona twice, holding them to just two runs on nine hits in 13 combined innings while winning both starts.

Arizona counters with Zac Gallen (1-5, 4.61), who has not lasted longer than 2.2 innings in either of his two starts against San Francisco this year. He has allowed seven earned runs in that span while surrendering two home runs. He faces a Giants lineup with a rested Buster Posey after yesterday’s routine day off, and they will look to add to their .424 slugging percentage in 73 combined plate appearances against Gallen.

San Francisco is 7-1 in Gausman’s last eight starts against teams from the NL West and is 6-0 in their previous six road games against right-handed starters. The Giants will win this one big.

MLB Prop Bets

• George Springer Prop Bet Odds
• Rhys Hoskins Prop Bet Odds
• Cody Bellinger Prop Bet Odds
• Pete Alonso Prop Bet Odds
• Brandon Lowe Prop Bet Odds

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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