Top MLB Betting Picks for Monday, August 9th (2021)

Aug 9, 2021 - 11:57 AM

If this weekend was any indication of how both of the races in each of the East divisions will play out, we are in for a wild next two months. Four teams are separated by seven games in the AL East, while the NL East had its standings completely flipped after Philadelphia swept the Mets. After being in first place every day since May 7th, the Mets suddenly find themselves in third place and are staring down a schedule where they face the Dodgers and Giants 13 times in the next three weeks. 

Playoffs chances and futures odds are changing daily, and with regular-season football still a month away, it is a great time to be a baseball fan. With just five games on today’s Major League Baseball slate, we have fewer wagers than usual.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Monday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 129-112-6 (+1.35 units)

Yankees-Royals UNDER 10 runs (-115)

The New York Yankees have played great baseball for quite some time now. They have won four series in a row and eight of their last nine. New York’s offense received an added jolt after the trade deadline with the additions of Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo. However, even though their lineup is much more balanced with those two lefties that can hit for power, their pitching has been more of the reason for success.

The Yankees have scored more than five runs just twice since the trade deadline. Two of their biggest bats in Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez remain on the COVID-19 IL, and the Yankees lineup is suddenly not as deep as it would be if everyone were healthy. In addition, Gleyber Torres was dealing with a thumb injury for the late innings of yesterday’s game, after jamming it on a slide into second base. Thus, he will likely be kept out of the lineup tonight as he undergoes further evaluation.

New York’s offense has been awful on the road, averaging just 3.1 runs in their last ten road games. Yankee Stadium has been mocked lately, as Joey Gallo and Roughned Odor hit home runs in their previous series that would not have left many ballparks. The under is 33-21 in New York’s 54 road games, and we like Kansas City’s chances of shutting down New York’s offense tonight.

The pitching matchup is between Jameson Taillon (7-4, 4.04) and Carlos Hernandez (3-1, 4.58). Taillon is 5-0 with a 2.32 ERA in his last seven starts and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six consecutive starts and eight of his previous nine. After making his first 12 appearances of the season out of the bullpen, Hernandez has allowed eight earned runs in 17.2 innings in his last four starts. He is getting comfortable in his new starting role, as he has allowed just one earned run and six hits in his previous 11 innings. Hernandez is a flamethrower, as his 55 fastballs that have reached 100+ MPH are tenth-most among all pitchers in baseball.

The under has cashed in New York’s last seven Monday games and is 6-0 in Kansas City’s last six series openers. Thus, look for a low-scoring game to open this three-game series.

San Diego Padres -1.5 runs (-115)

The Miami Marlins are a poor road team, as their 20 road wins are better than just four other teams. They face a Padres team whose 38 home wins are tied for the most in the majors. With Miami traveling from Colorado yesterday and San Diego continuing their homestand, a significant advantage goes to the home team tonight.

Another advantage the Padres have is on the mound, with Joe Musgrove (7-7, 2.87) facing Zach Thompson (2-4, 2.53). Musgrove ranks 12th in the majors in ERA, is tied for 22nd with 139 strikeouts, and his 0.97 WHIP ranks seventh. Musgrove has been especially tough on righties, as his .181 OBA against right-handed batters is seventh-best among qualified pitchers. He has allowed an ERA of 0.69 and an OBP of .224 over his last two starts, ranking third and eighth among all pitchers. The Padres are 6-1 in Musgrove’s starts after he throws a quality start in his last outing.

The Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep road sweep against the Rockies, where they were outscored by 20 runs. Miami is just 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record, and San Diego is 4-1 in their previous five series openers. A well-rested Padres team that did not have to travel should rudely welcome a Miami team amid a six-game West Coast road trip.

MLB Prop Bets


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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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