Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, August 28th (2021)

Aug 28, 2021 - 1:09 PM

Time flies; we’re already approaching the final weekend in August if you can believe it. Rosters are set to expand in just a few days, and September call-ups are looking to showcase themselves for the inside track to a roster spot next season.

More importantly, playoff races are heating up, and wild card races are tightening up. If the season ended today, the top two preseason World Series favorites – the Yankees and Dodgers – would be hosting the one-game Wild Card play-in round, something not even the biggest baseball fans could have predicted.

With just a few Saturdays remaining on the docket, I’ve picked out my two favorite bets for tonight’s slate – one total and one run line. Let’s have a day!

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

St. Louis Cardinals / Pittsburgh Pirates Under 8 (+100)

There are some under 8.5 (-125) lines out there, which I also like. But I’m willing to lay the extra half run in exchange for even-money odds. I’m really having trouble understanding just how we’re getting even money here, but before it evaporates, let’s jump on it.

For starters, these teams don’t score a ton of runs, especially lately. This year, the Cardinals are 26th in runs (4.08 per game), and Pittsburgh is dead-last (3.62). The under is 3-6-1 in St. Louis’ last 10 games and 2-6-2 in the Pirates’ last 10. And to top it off, the under is 2-1-1 in the last four these two teams have played each other. Don’t expect any fireworks, especially because of who’s taking the mound.

Let’s start with the obvious: Adam Wainwright. Old reliable will take the hill for his 352nd regular-season start with the Cardinals, and he’s tapped into the fountain of youth this year. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts – the only outlier being a three-run blip on the radar. The final score has landed under eight runs in six of the seven as well. The big right-hander has also dominated the Pirates both this year and in his career. Wainwright has two starts against Pittsburgh this season, combining for 14 innings, one walk, 17 strikeouts, and just one run. They can’t solve him and are hitting just .186 off Wainwright lifetime.

The Pirates aren’t world-beaters at the plate, to begin with, but their struggles are amplified off righties. They’re last in baseball over the past month in wRC+ off right-handers (61; 10 points behind the next closest), batting average (.207; 10 points behind the next closest), and OPS (.590; 43 points behind the next closest). That’s absolutely bleak; look for Wainwright to toss another gem.

Pittsburgh has a hidden gem of their own taking the mound in lefty Steven Brault. You may not have heard of him, but you will. Brault has made just four starts after a lat injury sidelined him for the first four months of the year, and he’s been brilliant – pitching to a 1.93 ERA. He’s actually faced the Cardinals twice since returning to the big leagues, wearing the loss both times but not for lack of effort on his part. He allowed two runs in his first matchup against St. Louis and just one run in the most recent outing. Brault has faced Cardinals hitters 143 times in his career, holding them to a .197 batting average.

The Cardinals also uncharacteristically struggle against lefties. Over the last month, they’re striking out at the fourth-highest rate against left-handers in all of baseball (25.4%) and walking at the ninth-lowest rate (7.6%). Brault isn’t normally a strikeout guy, but if you introduce that into his arsenal, it could be dangerous for the Cardinals, but a blessing in disguise for our under.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+105)

I don’t usually love taking run lines on the road for a variety of reasons. The obvious being the fact that the team isn’t playing in its home ballpark with familiar confines, but also because strange things can happen in the bottom of the ninth. However, the Brewers are heading to Minnesota, where they’ll face a struggling Twins team and a struggling left-handed pitcher who was left in the game far, far too long in his last start.

Charlie Barnes will pitch for the Twins on Saturday, and he was lit up in the Bronx in his last start. He allowed seven runs on eight hits and five walks against the Yankees, most of the damage coming in the first three frames, and was inexplicably left out there to throw 109 pitches in five innings. He’s going to be gassed; that was his first big league outing of over 80 pitches, and if he turns the ball over to the weak Minnesota bullpen to pitch half this game, we’re in great shape.

Barnes has a dreadful 6.83 ERA on the year and has just 11 strikeouts in 23.1 innings of work. He hasn’t thrown more than five innings in any start, and he’s got a loaded lineup opposite him who feasts on lefties. Milwaukee hits .263 off southpaws, 10th in baseball over the last month, and they’re going to make him throw strikes. The Brewers have the sixth-lowest strikeout rate against left-handers in August (19.8%). 

Milwaukee will rely on Adrian Houser, who isn’t one of the Brewers’ big guns at the top of the rotation, but he’s nothing to scoff at. Houser has been solid of late, and the Brewers have been even better as a team when he takes the mound. Milwaukee is 10-1 in Houser’s last 11 starts, covering the run line in nine of those 10 wins. He’s also allowed zero runs in three of his last five starts and four of his last six appearances, and one run or fewer in four of the last five outings.

The Brewers, despite being 8.5-games atop the NL Central standings, still need to pile up wins to ensure their spot in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Twins’ season is over. Their lineup is a shell of what it was earlier in the year and isn’t close to competing with the Brewers. This won’t be plus-money for long, so grab it before it dips below even-money.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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