Top MLB Betting Picks For Saturday, September 18th (2021)

Sep 18, 2021 - 9:54 AM

Just three Saturdays remain in the MLB regular season before we head into playoff baseball. Four of the six divisions are all but wrapped up; the National League East and National League West are still tight races at the top, and the Wild Card chases in both leagues are shaping up to promise some exciting finishes.

In the American League, four games separate five teams vying for two spots, three of which are AL East squads. Over in the National League, the second-place team from the NL West will surely host the Wild Card game. The Dodgers are currently 12.5 games up on everyone else behind them. But the race for the second spot couldn’t be any more pressure-packed. A half-game separates three teams, and despite four teams in front of the New York Mets, they’re just five games out. Crazier things have happened.

Just four favorites on Saturday’s betting card are -120 or lower. There isn’t much value in betting moneylines this deep into the season with so many top teams going up against squads who’ve packed it in for the winter. So I’m turning my attention to totals. I’ve got an over and an under on tap for Saturday, so let’s check it out.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Colorado Rockies / Washington Nationals Over 9 (-107)

Both Colorado and Washington will send a left-hander to the mound on Saturday, presenting a golden opportunity to hit this over as both teams have fared well against southpaws.

Starting with the Nationals – they lead all baseball in batting average against lefties in the last 30 days. They’re the only team hitting over .300 against southpaws in that span, posting a .307 average, .897 OPS (2nd), and 136 wRC+ (2nd). They’ll face the Rockies’ Kyle Freeland, who’s been friendly to opposing hitters this year, to say the least. Freeland sports a 4.76 ERA, and while it’s easy to assume that’s because of the ‘Coors Field effect’ – it’s not. Freeland’s road ERA is still a bloated 4.26. He’s also below the 50th percentile in nearly every pitching metric, including barrel percentage, expected batting average, and strikeout rate. All signs point towards runs for the Nationals.

While Colorado’s numbers against lefties aren’t as gaudy as Washington’s, they’re still handling them well over the last month. Over the last 30 days, the Rockies team average is 11 points higher against left-handers than against right-handers (.250), and they’re hitting .287 against the southpaw they’ll be facing on Saturday: Patrick Corbin. Corbin has had an incredibly rough 2021, pitching to a 5.98 ERA and ranking below the 30th percentile in those same metric categories as Freeland.

I think part of the reason this total is at such a reasonable number is that Corbin has actually been pretty good over his last two starts, but keep in mind he faced the two lightest-hitting teams in baseball: the Pirates and Mets. Before those outings, six of Corbin’s last seven starts and eight of his previous 10 resulted in nine or more combined runs.

What’s more: these bullpens were taxed on Friday night. They combined to use 11 pitchers – seven from the Rockies and four from the Nationals – to finish off the final 8.2 innings of last night’s game. And these two bullpens aren’t very good to begin with. Washington’s ranks fifth from the bottom, and Colorado’s is third from last. I wouldn’t play this any higher than the current total of 9, but I would play over 9 down to -120.

Los Angeles Dodgers / Cincinnati Reds Under 8.5 (-115)

We’re about to see a solid pitching matchup in Cincinnati on Saturday when Max Scherzer takes on Sonny Gray. Gray’s season ERA is 3.80, which isn’t bad by any means but is a bit loftier than many Reds fans hoped. Don’t let that number fool you. He went through a rough patch in late July and early August, which ballooned his ERA from 3.19 up to 4.47. Since, he’s been back to his old self, allowing just six combined runs over his last five starts – two of which were shutouts.

Los Angeles hasn’t seen Gray since April either, so the Cincinnati right-hander should control the first time through the lineup. He’s been good against the Dodgers in his career, too, holding them to an impressive .202 batting average and an even lower .181 expected batting average. This year, Gray’s metrics are also some of the best in baseball: 90th percentile in expected slugging percentage, 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate, and 93rd percentile in barrel percentage. Teams are having a lot of trouble squaring him up, and coupled with the Dodgers’ poor lifetime stats against the right-hander, I’m expecting a strong outing.

The Dodgers are also uncharacteristically struggling against righties. Over the last month, Los Angeles has been second-to-last in baseball with a .213 batting average against right-handers, fifth-to-last in OPS (.666), and sixth-to-last in wRC+ (84). The Reds aren’t much better either over that same span. They’re 19th in batting average off righties (.237), 21st in OPS (.721), and 23rd in wRC+ (86). And, of course, they’ll now be facing one of the toughest righties in the game in Max Scherzer.

Max Scherzer has a 0.88 ERA in 8 starts with the Dodgers with the team winning all of his starts.

No pitcher since earned runs became official in 1913 has ever had a lower ERA in their 1st 8 games pitched with a team, all starts. pic.twitter.com/mlvbECsksw

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 13, 2021

Not much needs to be said about Scherzer’s stats. We all know how good he is. But here’s just how good: he’s got a 0.88 ERA in eight starts in Dodger blue, he ranks in the 90th percentile or above in nearly every single pitching sabermetric, and he owns a lifetime 34.1% strikeout rate against the Reds with a .182 batting average against. He dominates everyone, but especially the Reds.

These two teams are playing for something, Los Angeles for the NL West crown and Cincinnati for a playoff berth. Both teams will look to play mistake-free baseball, pitchers will have short leashes, and bullpens will be trimmed, so only the top relievers are used in high-leverage situations. Plus, last night’s game between these two combined for just four runs, Cincinnati is 8-2 to the under in their previous 10, and the Dodgers are 35-31-10 to the under on the road this year. All great trends for our bet, which I would play down to -125.

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Mike Wagenman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @mjwags23.

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