Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 22nd (2021)

Sep 22, 2021 - 11:26 AM

Oddsmakers are forcing bettors to lay steep juice with some moneylines lately, as at least six games on today’s slate have a favorite of -200 odds or higher. With so many steep moneylines for today’s slate of MLB games, we are getting creative with our three plays today. We backed a first five innings moneyline on an underdog, a total, and a team total.

Here are my MLB top betting plays for Wednesday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 172-140-8 (+16.88 units) 

Detroit Tigers First Five Innings ML (+140)

The Detroit Tigers have not looked much like a third-place team or a team four games under .500 of late. For the last two weeks, Detroit’s schedule has been murderous, with tonight being their 12th consecutive game against a first-place team. The Tigers have played seven games against the Rays, two against the Brewers, and two against the White Sox, and are a combined 8-3 in those 11 games. Now with ace Casey Mize on the mound, they are a tremendous value play as underdogs once again.

Mize (7-8, 3.64) leads all Tigers starters in most major categories, including innings pitched (143.1), WAR (3.3), WHIP (1.14), and ERA. However, the team is being cautious with his innings down the stretch, as he has not thrown more than three innings in his last three starts. Thus, we opt for Detroit’s first five innings moneyline odds instead of the full game to take the Tigers bullpen more out of the equation.

Mize is opposed by Reynaldo Lopez (3-3, 3.00), who was lit up for six earned runs on seven hits in four innings in a home start against the Angels. Lopez is much more comfortable pitching at night, as he is still looking for his first win of the season in a day game. In six daytime appearances (four starts), Lopez is 0-3 with a 4.29 ERA.

The White Sox are 0-4 in Lopez’s last four Wednesday starts, and we look for them to once again fall behind early, especially with Mize limiting them in however many innings he is permitted to throw.

Orioles-Phillies UNDER 8 runs (-105)

The under is 7-2-1 in the last ten meetings between the Orioles and Phillies and is 6-2 in their previous eight meetings in Philadelphia. With an under-the-radar starting pitching matchup in this series finale, we should be in for another low-scoring game.

Baltimore’s Keegan Akin’s numbers do not suggest that he should be trusted tonight, but he has been a much better pitcher over the last two months. Akin (2-10, 6.93) finished August with a 4.61 ERA in seven starts, down from 8.61 and 12.19 the two months prior. Though he has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his three September starts, we trust him to limit a Phillies offense that has struggled against lefties of late. Philadelphia has scored two total runs in their last two games against an opposing left-handed pitcher, including a 2-0 shutout defeat in their series opener against Baltimore’s John Means.

The Phillies counter with Zack Wheeler (14-9, 2.83), who is looking to keep his slim Cy Young hopes alive. Wheeler has won four consecutive starts and has pitched to a 1.02 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in three September starts. Thus, we do not have to worry about him doing his part in keeping the scoring down.

Seattle Mariners Team Total OVER 3.5 runs (-130)

The Seattle Mariners have dominated the Oakland Athletics on the road of late, winning six of their last seven games in Oakland and each of the previous seven games of this head-to-head series. Seattle is in line for another productive day offensively, as they have had great success against A’s starter, Cole Irvin, in the past.

Irvin (10-13, 3.94) has allowed current Seattle batters to hit a combined .438 against him (21-for-48) in 53 plate appearances, with a slugging percentage of .521. While no Mariners hitter has taken him deep in their careers, they have also struck out a combined four times, which means we should see plenty of balls in play tonight. Irvin’s lack of punch-out ability has been an ongoing issue, as his 16% strikeout rate since the start of last season is the eighth-lowest among pitchers with at least 103 innings pitched. 

Seattle is 5-2 in their last seven games against a left-handed starter, and the over is 5-1-1 in that span. We trust that these trends will support another high-scoring game from the Mariners offense tonight.

MLB Prop Bets

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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