Top 3 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, October 3 (2021)

Oct 3, 2021 - 1:03 PM

We made it. Today is the day, friends. We have arrived at the final day of the 2021 MLB season, at least for now. We could see some whacky tiebreakers that result in some bonus baseball after today, but this is the end of the previously scheduled regular season. But since today is the final day of the regular season, we have to be careful with our bets. We are going to see players resting. Pitchers are going to be pulled early. Many of these games do not matter to potential playoff scenarios or seeding, and that makes some somewhat riskier plays. But that doesn’t mean they are necessarily off-limits. Let’s talk through some of my favorite bets for this final day.

Here are my top betting plays for Sunday, October 3. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs (-164)

		+1.5 +136	o 10.5 -118	+270
		-1.5 -164	o 10.5 -118

I don’t typically make a habit of taking run lines with -164 odds, but the final day of the MLB season feels like the right time to break old habits. Look, this is a must-win game for the Blue Jays. They have won 90 games and have a +175 run differential and could still miss the playoffs if the Red Sox and Yankees both win today. That’s bananas, but it’s the world we live in right now. Toronto needs to be the hapless Orioles on Sunday to give themselves a shot, and they are sending Hyun-jin Ryu to the mound to get it done. However, the Orioles have one of the better offenses in the league against left-handed pitching, so this isn’t a cake matchup for Ryu. Luckily, the Orioles are countering with Bruce Zimmerman, who will be making just his second appearance since June 13. I expect Ryu to show up in a big game, and I like the Blue Jays to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

The #BlueJays might win 91 games with a +175 run differential and still not make the playoffs.

The AL East is not for the weak.

— mike Maher. (@mikeMaher) October 3, 2021

Boston Red Sox -2.5 Runs (+105) and UNDER 10 runs (-110)

		-2.5 +105	o 10.0 -110	-222
		+2.5 -125	o 10.0 -110	+180

Shoot your shot, kids. We’re giving up 2.5 runs in this one to move the line to +105. If you don’t want to be as aggressive, check out the Red Sox at Nationals Game Odds page over at BettingPros and shop around for different options. FanDuel Sportsbook has 1.5 runs at -140, and Caesars Sportsbook has the moneyline at -216. Similar to the Blue Jays, this is a must-win for the Red Sox with their left-handed ace on the mound. But this game is in a National League ballpark without a DH, and the Washington lineup is essentially Juan Soto and a bunch of other guys at this point. If the Red Sox win today, they will host the Wild Card game. If they lose, they open themselves up to potential tiebreaker scenarios and could have to play an extra game just to get into the playoffs. The Nationals are countering Sale with Joan Adon, who will be making his MLB debut.

As for the under bet, this is another move that is a bit uncharacteristic for me. The Nationals are starting a pitcher who is making his MLB debut and who is unlikely to go more than three or four innings. If you have read my writing this season, you know that is often the kind of thing I like to target for over bets. The weakest part of most MLB teams is the front-end of their bullpen, and knowing we are going to see that part of the bullpen coming into a game screams over. But I expect Sale and the Red Sox to limit the damage on their side of things, and this feels like an eventual 6-1 or 7-1 win.

That’s it for today. Have questions or want to talk baseball or betting? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @mikeMaher.

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Mike Maher is an editor and featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive, follow him on Twitter @MikeMaher, and visit his Philadelphia Eagles blog, The Birds Blitz.

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