Top MLB Playoff Betting Picks for Tuesday, October 12th (2021)

Oct 12, 2021 - 11:46 AM

The National League was supposed to be in the spotlight by themselves today, but a rainout in Game 3 of the ALDS matchup between the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox means that we will get three playoff games today. The Brewers, White Sox, and Dodgers are all on the brink of elimination in these Game 4s, needing wins to force winner-take-all Game 5s. Which one of these teams do we like to extend their series, and what is our best play on a nine-inning total for today?

Here are my best bets for Tuesday’s MLB playoff action. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Red Sox finished last in the AL East in 2020.

This is the 4th time a team has advanced to the LCS the season after finishing last in their division…the last team to do so was the 2013 Red Sox, who won the World Series. pic.twitter.com/nmCTXecvsI

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 12, 2021

View the best player prop bets for today’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

YTD: 189-157-8 (+15.73 units) 

Chicago White Sox ML (+105)

Chicago White Sox starter Carlos Rodon pitched to a 2.37 ERA in 24 regular season starts and had a 2.63 xERA and 2.65 FIP. Since returning from an IL stint, Rodon posted a 2.35 ERA and a 3.04 FIP in five starts but did not pitch into the sixth inning in that span. Thus, yesterday’s rainout significantly helped the White Sox, whose bullpen has been taxed so far this series, but responded with five scoreless innings in Game 3. Yesterday’s day off also helps Houston, as Ryan Pressly, Phil Maton, and Kendall Graveman appeared in relief in two of the first three games. However, manager Dusty Baker will only be able to go back to the well so often before a talented White Sox lineup takes advantage of these familiar faces in the middle and late innings.

The Astros ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk rate, and had the league’s best strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching this year. They have averaged seven runs per game through the first three games of this series, but we expect Rodon to be up to the task to deliver five solid innings tonight.

This season, the White Sox are 49-25 as home favorites and are 16-8 after a day off. Conversely, the Astros are 9-11 as road underdogs this year and are 13-9 after a day off. Houston has lost five consecutive road games and is 0-6 in their last six road games against teams with a winning record. Chicago has won their previous four home games against teams with a winning record and is 5-0 in Rodon’s last five home starts. As a result, the White Sox are a worthy favorite today and will push this series to a fifth game.

Brewers-Braves UNDER 8.5 runs (-115)

The Brewers and Braves have played three games in their NLDS matchup, and all three games have totaled three runs. Milwaukee is a combined 16-for-91 (.176 batting average) in this series, while Atlanta is 19-for-94 (.202). The under has cashed in Milwaukee’s last seven Divisional Playoff games and each of Atlanta’s last five playoff games. All of the Braves’ runs in Game 3 came on one swing of the bat, a three-run pinch-hit home run by Joc Pederson. Milwaukee is scoreless in 19 consecutive innings, and they were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the Game 3 loss. Now, centerfielder Lorenzo Cain is dealing with a sore shoulder after crashing into the wire fence in the outfield as he tried to track down a fly ball by Adam Duvall in the fourth inning yesterday. The Brewers have lost their last five road games against teams with a winning record, but we are not playing around with moneyline odds when this much data points to the under.

While no starting pitcher has officially been announced, both teams will likely take an “all hands on deck” approach. As a result, we may see upwards of four to six relievers from each team piece together the 27 outs required to nail down a win. That kind of approach will make it more difficult for hitters to lock in and find a rhythm, and we predict this game will stay under even though it may not be a pitcher’s duel between two starting pitchers for most of the innings.

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