Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Monday, May 16th (2022)

May 16, 2022 - 9:57 AM

The Cincinnati Reds were starting to build some momentum as they won back-to-back series against the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates and, at one point, had won six of eight games. And while the Reds did not lose their last series against Pittsburgh after splitting the four games, they set a new low after falling to 9-26.

While the Reds lost after throwing a no-hitter, the New York Yankees won convincingly 5-1 despite collecting just two hits. It was an underwhelming day for offenses, as 15 teams were held to six or fewer hits.

Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox O/U

The moneyline odds for this Astros-Red Sox series opener could be classified as a “fishy line,” as the Astros, who have won 11 of 12 games, are underdogs against a last-place Red Sox team that is eight games over .500. However, instead of getting caught up in the “do the oddsmakers know something here” game, we attest their lack of confidence in Houston to their starting pitcher, Jake Odorizzi.

Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38) has the lowest WAR (minus-0.2) of all Houston starting pitchers. He faces a Red Sox lineup that found some offense in taking two out of three games over the weekend against Texas, as its 18 combined runs in the two wins drastically exceeded the 3.5 runs per game they averaged through the first 31 games.

Boston has two players, J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers, that rank in the top 14 of all hitters in OPS. The former enters this game on a 16-game hitting streak and has safely reached base in all of his 27 games. In addition, Houston’s lineup is much deeper after getting Jose Altuve back from the IL, and the slugger immediately contributed with two hits and a home run yesterday. Thus, the over is a safer play than the moneyline in this game.

Bet: Astros-Red Sox OVER 8.5 (-120 at DraftKings)  

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins O/U

The Marlins swept a three-game road series against the Nationals from April 26-28, with all three games going under the projected total. No game featured more than seven runs, and the final two games had three and five runs scored, respectively. However, both of these teams have been involved in high-scoring games of late. Miami has had double-digit runs scored in four of its last five games, and Washington has allowed at least six runs in four of its previous five. In addition, Washington showed glimpses of its offensive potential over the weekend against Houston, erupting for 13 runs when it snapped the Astros’ 11-game winning streak after Houston had allowed just 12 total runs in those 11 games.

The over has cashed in the last four meetings in Miami between these teams, and with Aaron Sanchez and his 7.58 ERA on the mound tonight, the Marlins could cash this over themselves.

Bet: Nationals-Marlins OVER 7 (-120 at DraftKings)  

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers RL

The Dodgers were one out away from being swept in four games at home by the Phillies and were in danger of running their losing streak to five consecutive games. However, Los Angeles came all the way back from a 4-0 deficit to beat Philadelphia 5-4 on a ninth-inning, two-out double by Gavin Lux, and the Dodgers come into this feeling good about themselves.

Los Angeles had been 10-2 at home even before Philadelphia came to town, and the Dodgers will be motivated to face their division rivals, whom they lost two of three games to on the road earlier this season. This looks like a pitching mismatch on paper as Madison Bumgarner (2-1, 1.78) faces Tony Gonsolin (3-0, 1.33). However, we expect some regression from Bumgarner, who will struggle to keep up this pace at age 32. We instead back Gonsolin, one of the more underrated pitchers on L.A.’s staff. Gonsolin is second on the team with a 1.1 WAR, and the Dodgers are 4-1 in his last five starts, outscoring opponents 32-9.

Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-120 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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