Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Tuesday, June 21 (2022)

Jun 21, 2022 - 10:46 AM

Last Tuesday, we were a Dylan Cease wild pitch away from a sweep, and for this week, we’ll put our faith in him once again, but this time his counterpart is as good as it gets. However, before that, we’ll head to the Queen City, where two of the best starters from the National League are set to square off. We’re just 12 outs away from glory. So let’s take a closer look to find out how we’ll get there.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds 6:40 pm ET

This may very well be the best pitching matchup on the slate as Tony Gonsolin will be up against Tyler Mahle. Gonsolin has been excellent this season as breaking stuff has given hitters fits all season long. He enters his a 1.42 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Both his slider and splitter have BAA under .110 and whiff rates above 40 percent. Those numbers make those pitches two of the most elite in the game. When hitters actually make contact with them, it’s usually soft, as Gonsolin is in the top four percent of the league in hard-hit rate. The Reds’ offense has been subpar, to say the least, this season, and it’s only been worse of late with the injury to Tyler Stephenson. The Reds have not scored in the first innings in each of their last three games, and their outlook is bleak against Gonsolin.

As for his Tyler Mahle, he’s quietly been one of the hottest pitchers in the National League. He’s only surrendered four runs in the month of June and is the leader in ERA to xERA differential amongst starters. His ERA is still inflated from a rocky beginning of the season, and his xERA is over a full run lower than his actual ERA. That is mainly due to him finding his groove of late and still maintaining the great stuff that made him a breakout star last year. He’s amongst the top 40 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, xBA, and strikeout rate. He should have no issues getting outs against a Dodgers lineup that has cooled down considerably of late.

Pick: NRFI -105

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox 8:10 pm ET

As I alluded to in the open, we’re going right back to Dylan Cease, as his ability to punch out anyone is invaluable for NRFIs. Limiting contact is the best way to avoid scoring, and Cease has been untouchable at times this year. He’s compiled 97 strikeouts in 68 innings. His whiff, strikeout, and xBA are all in the top eight percent of the majors. The first inning has been a struggle for Cease as he has a 4.15 ERA, but he also has 21 strikeouts in those 13 first innings, so we’re almost guaranteed one out from him. After that, we just need two more without a man crossing the plate.

Kevin Gausman is coming off his roughest outing of the season as he surrendered five runs to the Orioles before getting yanked in the third. You already know he’s determined to bounce back, as prior to that start, he had not allowed more than three runs in any outing. Like Cease, Gausman has tremendous stuff and will enter this start with both this walk and chase rates amongst the top four percent of the league. He’s faired well in the first innings this season as he’s only allowed four runs, but this WHIP is 1.69, which is concerning. However, that gets nullified by the White Sox’s lack of plate discipline. They have the lowest walk rate and the sixth highest BABIP in the majors. So balls are overdue to find some gloves, which will help Gausman get through the first inning here.

Pick: NRFI -110

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