9 MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Thursday (6/30)

Jun 30, 2022 - 2:09 PM

Let’s check out the top player prop odds and picks for Thursday.

Top MLB Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks for Thursday

Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians

• Shane Bieber Over 6.5 K’s (-128)
• Jose Ramirez 2+ Total Bases (-115)
• Andres Gimenez 1+ Hit (-185)

The Cleveland Guardians will play a day game against the Minnesota Twins with Shane Bieber on the mound. Bieber has struck out 30.1% of batters in the last 30 days and will take on a Twins lineup that has struck out 21.3% of the time in that same time frame.

There are six batters in the Twins lineup striking out at least 20.6% of the time against righties throughout the last month.

On the other hand, Chris Archer will get the call for the Twins. Archer has a 4.97 xFIP with just 18.2% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s also allowing 22.6% of line drive contact when balls are batted into play in the last month.

Jose Ramirez has a .328 ISO and wOBA of .391 against righties in that same time frame with just 5.5% of strikeouts. He’s hitting for power and limiting strikeouts.

Lastly, Andres Gimenez is hitting a .237 ISO with a wOBA of .447 against righties in the last 30 days. He’s hitting 31.9% of line drives in that time frame.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

• Bryan Reynolds 2+ Total Bases (-105)
• Jack Suwinski 1+ Hit (-130)
• Bligh Madris 1+ Hit (+185)

I’m stacking the Pirates in tonight’s game. Adrian Houser will take the hill for the Brewers, with a 4.74 xFIP in the last 30 days.

In those 30 days, he’s allowed a .345 BABIP along with 23.3% of line drives. On top of that, he’s given up 40% of hard contact in that same time frame.

In Houser’s last 53 plate appearances against lefties, he’s allowed a .393 wOBA and ISO of .191.

Bryan Reynolds is coming off a three home-run game for the Pirates last night and will be batting from the left-handed side tonight. He’s hitting a .313 ISO and wOBA of .408 in his last 71 plate appearances against righties.

Bligh Madris has a .227 ISO and wOBA of .396 in 22 plate appearances against righties while Jack Suwinski has a .327 ISO and wOBA of .384 against righties in his last 56 plate appearances.

The big thing here is that all three of these batters are left-handed.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs

• Joey Votto 2+ Total Bases (+105)
• Patrick Wisdom 2+ Total Bases (+110)
• Ian Hoerner 1+ Hit (-280)

The Reds will send out Graham Ashcraft for tonight’s game against the Cubs. Ashcraft has had a 3.39 xFIP in the last 30 days but only has 18.3% of strikeouts. That means balls will be in play and Ashcraft has allowed 22.2% of line drives when balls are batted into play in the last 30 days.

Against his last 55 righties, Ashcraft has allowed a .330 wOBA to righties along with an ISO of .218. Patrick Wisdom is the major power threat here, with an ISO of .232 against righties in his last 81 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Nico Hoerner is also right-handed and has a .371 wOBA with just 5.5% of strikeouts against righties in the last 30 days.

On the other hand, Kyle Hendricks will get the call for the Cubs tonight. He’s allowed 26.9% of line drives in the last 30 days while giving up a .382 wOBA and ISO of .243 to lefties in the same time frame. The Reds don’t have many consistent lefties in their lineup but the one who can do damage is Joey Votto.

Votto has a .194 ISO and wOBA of .345 with just 15.8% of strikeouts in his last 76 plate appearances against righties. He’ll have his opportunities.

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