Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Sunday, July 3 (2022)

Jul 3, 2022 - 1:48 PM

We lost our sweep in the ninth inning, with two outs, in the White Sox and Giants game. We had the under. It was 5-2 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, and then the Giants scored, ruining the under.

But we still made some profit. So I guess we’ll take it.

Can we get a sweep with three plays today?

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(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals

The Miami Marlins will send out Pablo Lopez against the Nationals. Lopez might have a 4.36 xFIP in the last 30 days, but he’s also had 22% of plate appearances result in strikeouts in that time frame.

Lopez has struggled against lefties in the last 30 days allowing a .379 wOBA and ISO of .255 through his 55 plate appearances. However, the Nationals only have three left-handed hitters between Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Luis Garcia, and the other six batters in the lineup aren’t significant threats against Lopez.

On the other hand, Erik Fedde is coming into this game for the Nationals with a 5.47 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s recorded a low number of strikeouts and a high number of walks in that time frame.

Fedde has limited power against both sides of the plate, but he’s allowing nearly 35% of batted balls in play to be hard hits. The Marlins have a lot of power in the middle of their lineup and should be able to capitalize, knowing Fedde isn’t a big strikeout thrower.

Bet: Marlins (-135 at DraftKings) 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins

The Baltimore Orioles have lost to the Minnesota Twins on back-to-back walk-offs.

The Orioles have stuck around in this series and played solid baseball for the last 30 days. The run line for the Orioles is appealing today.

Devin Smeltzer, a lefty, will take the mound for the Twins. He has a 5.71 xFIP in the last 30 days and will take on an Orioles lineup that has a .196 ISO and wOBA of .339 in that same time frame.

Against righties, the left-hander has allowed a wOBA of .372 and an ISO of .293 in his last 90 plate appearances against them. He’ll have to face at least seven righties in the Orioles lineup today.

On the other hand, Tyler Wells will get the call for the Orioles. He’s not doing much better than Smeltzer but does have a .164 BABIP in the last 30 days.

The Twins haven’t hit particularly well in this series, and they’ve just come alive in the ninth inning in both games. Wells has limited line drives to 15.6% when balls are batted into play, which will help him survive the Twins.

Take the Orioles +1.5.

Bet: Orioles +1.5 (-135 at DraftKings)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros

I like the Astros in today’s game, but I’m leaning in a different direction in this game.

The Angels will send out Jose Suarez, who has been surprising as of late, holding a 3.71 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s getting nearly 47.6% of ground balls when balls are batted into play and has earned 27.7% of plate appearances that result in strikeouts.

Suarez has limited power from both sides of the plate and will give the Angels a chance to win today’s game.

On the other hand, Framber Valdez will take the hill for the Astros. He’s a left-handed pitcher, and the Angels absolutely stink against lefties, hitting a .123 ISO and wOBA of .278 in the last 30 days with their projected lineup.

Only Mike Trout has elevated numbers against lefties in this lineup. The rest of the lineup has a .316 wOBA or lower against lefties in the last 30 days.

I’ll take the Under 8.

Bet: Under 8 (-115 at DraftKings)

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