Top 3 MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Odds for Sunday, July 31st (2022)

Jul 31, 2022 - 1:26 PM

Major League Baseball’s getting underway early today with a 12:05 p.m. ET first pitch between the Tigers and Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Action concludes with a Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Cubs and Giants out west. A few other notable games sandwiched in between are the Brewers taking on the Red Sox, the Yankees going for a four-game sweep over the Royals, and a rubber match between the Twins and Padres. 

Here are my top three No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets for today’s 15-game slate.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Atlanta Braves

Atlanta looks to break out the brooms this afternoon as they host Arizona for the third and final game of their weekend series. The Braves will turn to Max Fried to get them there while the Snakes try to snap a two-game skid with Merrill Kelly. First pitch is set for 1:35 p.m. ET from Truist Park in this one. 

Kelly has been the most dependable arm for the Diamondbacks this season. The right-hander comes in at 10-5 with a 3.04 ERA (20th) and 1.15 WHIP (29th) over 20 starts in 2022. This could be his last start with Arizona as his name has popped up in a lot of trade discussions recently. As for his recent form, Kelly just threw 8.0 innings of scoreless baseball against the Giants on Monday. He allowed just three hits while striking out seven hitters in the winning effort. 

Fried posted his second straight quality start on Monday night. The southpaw limited the Phillies to three earned runs on nine hits while striking out eight in a no-decision. Fried comes into tonight’s game at 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA (12th) and 1.09 WHIP (20th) over 20 starts this year. 

Both of these starters are in fantastic form recently. Fried has made five starts this month and posted a 2.61 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while Kelly is at 1.57 and 0.79 in those respective categories. Kelly has allowed just one run over his last two starts, spanning 14.0 innings. Furthermore, the Braves are just 6-29 (.207) against him in his career with one extra base-hit. Let’s go with NRFI in this early N.L. matchup. 

Bet: Diamondbacks at Braves NRFI (-125 via DraftKings)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Phillies are also looking to break out the brooms this afternoon as they go for their fifth straight overall win and fourth straight over the Pirates. Their rotation rolls over and Aaron Nola gets the nod while the Pirates counter with J.T. Brubaker in this game scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. 

Nola comes into this game at just 6-8, but boasts a 3.32 ERA (30th) and 0.93 WHIP (4th) over 20 starts this year. Most recently, the right-hander threw against the Braves and allowed five earned runs on seven hits and a walk over 6.0 innings of work. Nola was charged with the loss and the team moved to 8-12 in his appearances this year. 

Brubaker has been a serviceable option for the Pirates this year. While his record is just 2-8, he comes into this matchup with a 3.96 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 19 starts. The righty has posted two straight quality starts, including a 6.0-inning outing against the Cubs on Monday. It was a no-decision effort where he yielded two earned runs on eight hits and a pair of walks. 

Brubaker has made three starts this month and posted a 2.50 ERA over 18.0 innings of work. As for head-to-head stats, he’s limited the Phillies to 7-26 (.269) with just two doubles. Kyle Schwarber is 3-8 (.375), J.T. Realmuto is 0-3 (.000) and Nick Castellanos is 3-10 (.300). I think the right-hander has the capability to keep Philadelphia scoreless in the first inning. As for Nola, he’s held the Pirates to 6-32 (.188) in his career, including 1-6 (.167) from Ke’Bryan Hayes and 1-4 (.250) from Kevin Newman. Let’s lock in NRFI in this game that’s seen two straight unders cash. 

Bet: Phillies at Pirates NRFI (-165 via DraftKings)

Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants

Gabe Kepler goes with Carlos Rodon as the Giants look to take three out of four from the Cubs tonight. Chicago counters with Adrian Sampson in this SNB matchup slated for 7:08 p.m. ET from Oracle Park. 

Sampson, while not a household name yet, has been very productive over eight appearances (six starts) in 2022. The right-hander comes in at 0-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 39.1 innings pitched. Most recently, Sampson held the Pirates to two earned runs on six hits and a walk over 7.0 innings. 

Rodon hasn’t been very sharp over his last two outings, giving up a combined ten earned runs over 11.0 innings to the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. However, the left-hander is still 8-6 on the year with a 3.18 ERA (22nd) and 1.12 WHIP (21st). 

Rodon sees his home ERA drop to 2.05 over eight starts this season and his WHIP sits at 1.25. He’s limited the Cubs to 8-41 (.195) in his career, including 2-7 (.286) from Wilson Contreras and 1-5 (.200) from both Ian Happ and Frank Schwindel. Rodon should have no issue carving up this lowly Cubs team tonight. As for Sampson, he hasn’t faced the Giants before so we don’t have any head-to-head data. But it’s worth mentioning that San Francisco’s offense ranks 26th in OPS (.642) and 28th in team batting average (.216) over the last 15 days. With their offense struggling to produce, I think Sampson can keep a scoreless first frame. 

Bet: Cubs at Giants NRFI (-145 via DraftKings)

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