Top 5 MLB Player Props for Friday, August 12 (2022)

Aug 12, 2022 - 2:11 PM

The weekend is here, and the aces are wild on this Friday night slate. There is a boatload of quality arms set to take the ball this evening. However, I’ve narrowed it down to my top five player props as there are multiple ways to back or fade the men on the mound tonight.

Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-157)
Atlanta vs. Miami 6:40 pm ET

Pablo Lopez has had an excellent season as he’s been the back end of a formidable one-two punch at the top of the Marlins rotation. Tonight he gets a Braves lineup that is very dangerous, but when they are not doing the damage, they swing and miss quite a bit. Atlanta enters this matchup with the third highest strikeout rate in the majors. Lopez has gone over this total in half his starts, so with the matchup added into the coin flip probability, this line has a bit of value on it.

Daniel Lynch Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-155)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals 8:10 pm ET

The line is a gift. Daniel Lynch has not gone more than five innings in 88.2 percent of his starts this season. That gives us implied odds of -750 that he will go under again. Now add in the fact that he’s facing the Dodgers, who may be the most potent offense in the league. It would be a shock if Lynch recorded an out in the sixth tonight.

Jordan Montgomery Over 1.5 Runs Allowed (-150)
Milwaukee vs. St. Louis 8:15 pm ET

The Brewers are a lineup made to hit left-handed pitching. Half of their lineup will be comprised of bats that particularly excel against lefties. Montgomery also has not been great against righties this year as he has a 4.38 FIP against them. He has also allowed at least two runs in 72.7 percent of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -266. This could cash very quickly if the Brewers have their bats going early.

Tyler Mahle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels 9:38 pm ET

Mahle did not make the best first impression in a Twins uniform as the Blue Jays tagged him for four runs on three homers. However, tonight should look very different. Mahle will face an Angels lineup with the highest strikeout rate in the majors. He has not gone over this total in 12 of his 19 stars, but when he has, he’s blown past it. Mahle has double-digit strikeout upside tonight, so going over six strikeouts may be just the beginning.

Carlos Rodon to Record a Win (-140)
Pittsburgh vs. San Francisco 10:15 pm ET

The Giants are massive favorites tonight as they opened at -270. That is primarily because of the mismatch on the mound. Carlos Rodon has been dominant this season as he enters with a 10-6 record, a 2.95 ERA, and a 1.07 WHIP. The Pirates have been one of the worst offenses in the majors this year and also have the second highest strikeout rate. Rodon should overpower Pittsburgh’s lineup and get plenty of run support. His price is a nice discount on the team’s price.


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