Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday, September 22nd (2022)

Sep 22, 2022 - 9:44 AM

Four teams have clinched playoff berths and others are inching closer as the end of the regular season is just two weeks away.

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers ML

The Rangers have had success against the Angels this year, winning nine of the 15 head-to-head meetings. They look to improve that record with Martin Perez (12-6, 2.84) on the mound. The Angels have not performed well against southpaws recently, producing a slash line of .214/.261/.360 against lefties on the road since August 1.

Meanwhile, Perez’s 3.07 ERA, 2.29 FIP, and 0.9 WAR are all the best among Rangers pitchers with a minimum of three starts over the previous 30 days. Perez has also done a fantastic job of keeping the ball in the yard, as he has not allowed a home run in his last 34.2 innings or any of the previous five starts dating back to August 24.

Conversely, Angels starter Michael Lorenzen’s (7-6, 4.74) xSLG, wOBA, and xWOBA are all the worst since his rookie year of 2015. Thus, we expect Texas to beat Los Angeles again tonight for the ninth time in the last 12 meetings.

Bet: Texas Rangers ML (-140 at DraftKings)  

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies O/U

Braves ace Max Fried (13-6, 2.52) has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last 15 starts. He is adept at minimizing hard contact, as he ranks in the 87th percentile or better in hard hit %, barrel %, average exit velocity, and BB% and chase rate.

Philadelphia’s Ranger Suarez is no slouch either, and he has limited the Braves to a combined .222/.308/.375 slash line. Thus, the .682 OPS he has limited Braves hitters to is impressive, considering they rank second in the majors with a combined .762 OPS on the season.

Two of the Braves-Phillies games from last week’s three-game series had just seven runs scored, and we expect a similar pitcher’s duel tonight.

Bet: Braves-Phillies Under 7.5 (-105 at DraftKings)  

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers O/U

If you have been focused on Aaron Judge’s race to break the AL home run record and his chase for the Triple Crown, you may have missed what Diamondbacks ace Zac Gallen has been doing for the last month. Gallen has a microscopic 0.99 ERA and 0.66 WHIP over his last seven starts. In addition, hitters in the top of the order are batting .179 against Gallen (2nd-best among qualified SPs), while the league average is at .245.

Gallen has also been tough on lefties, allowing an OBP of .223 (2nd-best in MLB among SPs with at least 73 total IP). That should bode well for his chances of success against some of L.A.’s best hitters like Freddie Freeman. In total, Gallen has allowed a slash line of .182/.281/.318 and struck out 39 Dodgers hitters in 110 combined at-bats, with just three home runs.

His counterpart, Julio Urias (17-7, 2.27), is second at many sportsbooks in the NL Cy Young voting and has held the Diamondbacks to a slash line of .189/.250/.278. Thus, it is evident why runs should be at a premium today..

Bet: Diamondbacks-Dodgers Under 7 (-105 at DraftKings)

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