Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/26)

Sep 26, 2022 - 1:00 PM

Only four games on today’s slate make it difficult to parse our way through the top plays of the day. On the NRFI front, there is still enough interest for us to be willing to pick two games to bet on.

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Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (9/26)

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox 7:10 ET

This one does not seem like a great bet on paper with Connor Seabold starting for the Red Sox. Seabold has an ERA over 10 this season mostly due to being extremely homer prone. He is allowing over two homers per nine which is masking some interesting skills in terms of his swing and miss potential. He faces the Orioles who in the last thirty days are middle of the pack in terms of home runs. This is mostly a gamble on Seabold being able to do just enough to get through the first because this is a plus odds bet which you do not see often in NRFI bets.

On the other end of this game, we have Jordan Lyles making the start. Lyles has an ERA over four this season but that is actually better than it has been in any of the past few seasons. He is limiting homers and walks which is allowing him to post truly solid results. The top three in the Red Sox lineup are above-average hitters but their power numbers are not as impressive as some other top ends of lineups. Lyles struggles a bit the first time through the order relative to the rest of the game but we just need him to have a clean first for this to hit.

Pick: +115

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates 6:35 ET

On a small slate like this one, we need to take bets on pitchers we typically would not attack. Chase Anderson is one of those pitchers. Anderson has been dreadful this season for the Reds however the sample is extremely small. However, diving in it appears that he is getting crushed in his home ballpark. He has a double-digit ERA at home and a three ERA on the road in nine innings. It’s hard to take chances on small samples like this but the Pirates also have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. The top third of their lineup can do some damage but they are fairly HR or bust and play in a poor park for power.

Roansy Contreras is starting for the Pirates and his poor start against the Yankees notwithstanding he has been very good in his first taste of the big leagues. The biggest issue for him has been walks as he is allowing over three per nine. He is facing a Reds offense that is second worst in baseball over the last 30 days. Their wRC+ is 81 which is only better than the Rockies who are a dreadful offense on the road. Contreras is certainly talented enough to ensure that the Reds offense stays off the board especially since there are not many hitters at the top of this order that we are concerned about.

Pick: -130

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