Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, September 27th (2022)

Sep 27, 2022 - 10:42 AM

Yesterday’s 2-0 day on a small four-game slate got our positive momentum going for the week. We are back with three more picks on a jampacked 15-game slate with every team in action.

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Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies ML

Over the next week and a half to conclude the regular season, we will put a premium on teams with something left to play for who face teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention. One example on today’s slate is this Phillies-Cubs series opener with more than reasonable moneyline odds, given the pitching mismatch.

Chicago’s Marcus Stroman (4-7, 3.80) has won just one of his previous ten starts. But while that lone win came in his last home start against the Rockies (one ER on three hits over seven innings), his numbers overall at Wrigley Field have been atrocious.

Stroman is 1-5 with a 6.31 ERA in ten home starts this year, and his OBA and WHIP are 50 and 42 points higher at home than on the road. Current Phillies hitters are slugging just .243 against Stroman in 89 combined at-bats, and two of their 19 hits have been for extra bases. However, Stroman has allowed at least three runs in six of his previous ten starts, which is a cause for concern when being opposed by Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler (11-7, 2.98).

Just three of Wheeler’s last 11 starts have come against teams under .500, but he is 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in those starts and has allowed 11 hits in those 20 innings. Three of those hits allowed were home runs, but surrendering the long ball will not be an issue against a Cubs lineup that ranks 29th in the league with 22 home runs over the last 30 days.

Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-165 at DraftKings)  

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers O/U

Kansas City has flown under the radar of late but was one of the most impressive teams in baseball last week, winning five of its previous six games. The Royals have ridden a red-hot offense during that impressive streak, owning the league’s third-best wRC+ (144) and the best wOBA (.376) and slugging percentage (.515) over the last seven days.

Kansas City’s Zack Greinke (4-9, 4.21) has atrocious road numbers, going 0-7 with a 6.36 ERA and a .321 OBA in 12 road starts. His road struggles, in combination with the Royals’ hot bats, should lead to a high-scoring affair in this series opener. Thus, we look for the over to cash for the fifth time in Greinke’s last five road starts against teams with a losing record.

Bet: Royals-Tigers Over 8 (-110 at DraftKings)  

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Team Total O/U

Not many starting pitchers going today have better numbers against their opposition than Lance Lynn (7-6, 4.02) against the Twins. Lynn has held Minnesota hitters to a slash line of .191/.240/.265, and just three of the 18 hits against him in 94 at-bats have gone for extra bases.

It is not just the Twins Lynn has been hot against lately, as he is 4-1 with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in his last seven starts. Lynn’s 2.53 FIP is best among White Sox starters over the previous 30 days, and his 1.67 ERA is second only to Dylan Cease’s 1.35 ERA in that span.

Minnesota ranks 21st in wRC+ and wOBA over the last 30 days, which is why it faded so quickly from the AL Central race. The under has cashed in the Twins’ previous four games against a starting pitcher with a WHIP less than 1.15, and Lynn will make sure a fifth straight cashes tonight while keeping Minnesota’s bats quiet.

Bet: Minnesota Twins Team Total Under 3,5 (-140 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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