MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions for Wednesday: Orioles vs. Red Sox (9/28)

Sep 28, 2022 - 12:50 PM

Late-season betting is a tough line to walk. There are too many teams with little or nothing to play for and we never know how teams plan to use their pitching. With that said there are still opportunities to be had so let’s dive into one: Orioles vs. Red Sox.

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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions for Wednesday: Orioles vs. Red Sox

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox 7:10 ET

This matchup and game has been a target of mine all week and unfortunately, it has yet to hit. However, we are going back to the well again. The Red Sox are starting Rich Hill and this season has gone much differently for the ageless wonder than the last several seasons. However, looking at estimators it seems that the ERA has finally come back down to Earth. The play here is the offensive matchup with the Orioles. Baltimore has a wRC+ of 93 against left-handed pitching. The offense has been hot the last few days but Hill is savvy enough to use his skills to exploit their weaknesses.

Baltimore is sending Dean Kremer to the mound. Kremer has had a really strong season despite what would be considered a questionable skillset. He has not allowed much in the way of power damage, but the tradeoff has been a well below-average walk rate. He has similar drastic splits to Woodruff where most of the damage done against him comes when he faces a hitter for the third time. However, he is not quite as good as Woodruff as his wOBAs allowed are around 0.290. The Red Sox have a strong top three in their lineup but Kremer has consistently been able to limit damage and this has allowed him to be extremely successful. Today should be no different.

Pick: -105

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