Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday, September 29th (2022)

Sep 29, 2022 - 9:31 AM

Move over, Roger Maris. You have company! Aaron Judge tied Maris’ American League home run record at 61 and, in the process, earned a lot of money for bettors who cashed in on his +205 odds (depending on the sportsbook) to go yard. Judge’s player props will likely be heavily bet once again when he returns home to face the Baltimore Orioles on Friday.

No one caught Aaron Judge’s 61st HR ball

Buddy with the glove just fumbled the bag. pic.twitter.com/k78SYOk7RM

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 29, 2022

Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins O/U

Chicago’s offense has underperformed all season, especially against righties, as it ranks 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, and 23rd in OPS against right-handed pitching this year. That does not bode well for its chances of success against Minnesota’s Louie Varland (0-2, 5.06), whose three starts have all totaled six runs through nine innings (his debut against the Yankees was tired 3-3 after nine innings but ended 5-4). 

The White Sox have punted the rest of the season, losing eight straight amid the news they were shutting down shortstop Tim Anderson for the rest of the season. Aside from a 10-7 loss to Cleveland to start the losing streak, Chicago has totaled 14 runs in the other seven games and ranks dead-last by a wide margin with a .215 BABIP over the last seven days.

We also trust Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.05) to keep the scoring down, as his 3.84 road ERA is much better than his 6.43 ERA in home starts. In addition, he has limited the Twins to a .172/.242/.248 slash line and just three of the 16 hits he has allowed in 93 combined at-bats have gone for extra-bases hits. That, combined with his two quality starts in his last three road appearances, have us ready to fire on the under.

Bet: White Sox-Twins Under 7.5 Runs (-110 at DraftKings)  

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians ML

New York’s Aaron Judge made home run history last night, and Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill can make pitching history tonight, albeit of a much more lowkey kind. 

After earning the win in his last home start on September 19, Quantrill improved to 13-0 in 32 career starts at Progressive Field. If he earns another win today, he will tie Vic Raschi’s record for most wins in one ballpark without a loss, set from 1947-55. We are not sure why oddsmakers keep giving such generous odds for a pitcher who refuses to lose at his own ballpark, but we certainly will not complain about it.

Quantrill (14-5, 3.49) faces a Rays team that ranks outside the top ten in the league in wOBA and wRC+ on the road since the beginning of August and is in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit percentage in that span. 

Despite clinching the division and wrapping up a home series in the AL playoffs, the Guardians are certainly not limping to the end of the regular season, winning eight of their last nine games, with the only loss in that span coming in extra innings. Back Quantrill at these disrespectful odds tonight.

Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-105 at DraftKings)  

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