Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/30)

Sep 30, 2022 - 12:53 PM

Tonight’s the start of the final weekend of the regular season. Just like that, we’re heading into the playoffs next weekend.

The season is flying by but we’ve still got plenty of baseball to bet on, even when the playoffs is here.

Most divisional races are complete. However, the NL East isn’t quite settled yet between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. The Mets lead the Braves by one game in the NL East and now have a three-game series on the road to settle things in the division.

The Mets can earn the division with a sweep of the Braves over the weekend. I’ll make sure to break this game down along with a couple of others I see value in.  Here are my top three bets for tonight.

(Odds courtesy DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

Jacob deGrom will get the first start in this series against the Braves. New York has elected to move deGrom up to begin the series. That way, if the Mets need deGrom to pitch in the final game of the season against the Nationals, he’ll be able to.

deGrom struggled his last time out against Oakland. He likely won’t struggle against Atlanta. The Braves’ projected lineup has struck out 23.9% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, deGrom has earned 39.1% of strikeouts over that same time frame and has limited walks and line drives in the last month.

On the other hand, Max Fried will get the ball for the Braves. He’s a lefty who has allowed a .167 ISO to lefties and .186 ISO to righties over the last 30 days.

The Mets have extra-base hit potential out of their lineup with six batters hitting an ISO of .194 or better against lefties in the last month. Francisco Alvarez was also called up by the Mets last night. He’s the number one prospect in baseball. There’s a chance that he gets a start against the left-hander.

How many times will we see deGrom at -122? Take the Mets.

Bet: Under 8 (-122 at FanDuel) 

Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are still fighting for that final NL Wild Card spot with the Phillies. The Brewers will send out Corbin Burnes to go up against Miami’s Sandy Alcantara.

Burnes won the NL Cy Young last season and now Alcantara will likely win it this year.

Burnes has a 3.23 xFIP over the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 27.5% of batters faced and has induced over 55% of ground balls when the ball is hit into play. Miami’s offense is hitting a .273 wOBA against righties over the last month.

Meanwhile, Alcantara has a 3.62 xFIP over the last month. He’s struck out over 23% of batters sand continues to induce a high amount of ground balls and limit line drives. He’ll face a Milwaukee lineup that only has a .306 wOBA against righties. This same projected lineup has struck out 25.3% of the time facing righties over the last 30 days.

I’ve got the under in this terrific pitching matchup.

Bet: Under 6 (-104 at FanDuel)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals will take on a familiar face tonight. Former St. Louis pitcher, Johan Oviedo, will get the start for the Pirates tonight. He has a 5.03 xFIP and has walked nearly 16% of batters faced in the last month.

St. Louis hasn’t performed all that well against righties recently. But Oviedo is going to have to work every inning with runners on base. The Cardinals have a bunch of clutch hitters between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to name a couple.

On the other hand, Jack Flaherty will get the call for the Cardinals. Flaherty hasn’t looked good since returning from the injured list. He also has a 5.00 xFIP with high walks over the last 30 days. The right-hander has given up over 30% of line drives when balls are put into play.

The Pirates aren’t the greatest offense either but they’ve got power coming from the left side. That should be enough to help push this game over the total.

Bet: Over 7.5 (-104 at FanDuel )

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our How To Section — including How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Sports Betting Mistakes — or head to a more advanced strategy — like Thinking Like an Expert Sports Bettor — to learn more.

The post Top 3 MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/30) appeared first on BettingPros.