Toronto 6, Red Sox 3: Wacha Limps To The Finish Line

Oct 3, 2022 - 1:50 PM

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If you’d been paying attention to Michael Wacha at all this year you know that (1) he pitched at an All-Star level and was by far the Sox best starter this year, and (2) he. . . was kinda getting really lucky all year, with underlying metrics that belied his surface-level stats. At one point in late May, his ERA was almost a full two-and-half runs better than his pedestrian 4.32 FIP. Well, the luck’s been running out lately, as his numbers have slowly stabilized, leading to yesterday’s start against the Blue Jays. It was his second-worst start of the season, and his second consecutive outing giving up three home runs.

Of course, even had Wacha pitched better, the Sox would have had trouble pulling this one out. Take a look at the lineup that started the game:

By my count, that’s precisely three players in the starting nine who, back in Spring Training, you might have guessed would be starting late September ball games. . . and one of those guys is Bobby Dalbec who played himself out of the big leagues months ago. This is a sad, punchless end to a sad, strange season.

Here’s how WPA saw it (FanGraphs Link):

Three Stars:

(1) Bobby Dalbec: .210 WPA, 2-4, HR, 3 RBI

(2) Abraham Almonte: .052 WPA, 1-4, R

(3) Eduardo Bazardo: .034 WPA, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 K

Three Duds:

(1) Michael Wacha: -.373 WPA, 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 HR, 1 BB, 4 K

(2) Yu Chang: -.139 WPA, 0-4 2 K

(3) Tommy Pham: -.124 WPA, 0-4, 1 K