Top MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday, October 4th (2022)

Oct 4, 2022 - 4:09 PM

Just two days remain in the regular season as we gear up for postseason action.

Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians RL

Aaron Judge’s pursuit of the American League home run recordis not the only history we may see today. On a much smaller scale, Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill (14-5, 3.59) has one more chance to do something historical and match a record set 67 years ago. Quantrill is 13-0 with a 2.91 ERA in 43 appearances (33 starts) at Progressive Field in his career. If he earns a win tonight, he will tie Vic Raschi’s unbeaten 14-0 record at Comiskey Park from 1947-55.

Quantrill has allowed a .235 OBA in his 18 home starts this season. However, Cleveland has not just had success with Quantrill pitching at home, as the Guardians are 15-1 in Quantrill’s last 16 starts overall, covering the runline in 11. 

Opposing Quantrill is Kansas City’s Daniel Lynch (4-12, 4.96), who has been one of the worst pitchers at avoiding hard contact. Lynch ranks in the 2nd percentile in average exit velocity allowed and in the first percentile in hard-hit percentage. Even if Cleveland rests guys before its playoff run, it should find enough offense in support of Quantrill to cover this runline.

Bet: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Runs (+120 at DraftKings) 

Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds ML

Cincinnati stopped Chicago’s momentum dead in its tracks with last night’s shutout win, as the Reds snapped the Cubs’ seven-game winning streak. Now the Reds will look for another win against Javier Assad (2-2, 3.62), Chicago’s most vulnerable pitcher of late. Assad has allowed at least four runs in three of his previous five starts and has a 4.72 xERA, which suggests he has gotten lucky to this point. In addition, he has difficulty locating the strike zone, as his 13.0% walk percentage is much higher than the 8.4% MLB average, as is his 17.8% K% (MLB average is 22.1%). 

Assad throws his sinker 30.5% of the time, which is a big reason for his low ground ball rate. However, while Assad’s GO/AO ratio is 1.46 at Wrigley Field, it is the complete reverse on the road at 0.52. The Great American Ball Park is one of the smallest stadiums in the league, and we expect Cincinnati to take advantage of those dimensions with all the pitches they will lift off Assad.

Cincinnati has won seven of the 17 matchups with Chicago and will close the gap on the season series with another win tonight.

Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (-115 at DraftKings)  

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles ML

When the Blue Jays play their first postseason series this weekend, Mitch White (1-6, 5.21) is not likely to be called upon to pitch. White’s 7.91 ERA through his first eight starts as a member of the Blue Jays is the second-worst all-time in franchise history and is better than only Dustin McGowan’s 8.38 ERA from 2005-06. The Blue Jays are 0-6 the last six times he toed the rubber, with a -28 run differential in that span. That includes a 9-6 loss at Baltimore, where he allowed five runs in 2.1 innings.

White has been tagged for at least three earned runs in those six starts while completing five innings just twice. There is no reason Toronto should be this big of favorites, especially since it will rest key players over the next two days while gearing up for the playoffs.

Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (-105 at DraftKings)  

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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