The SnakePit Guide to the Wild-card Round

Oct 6, 2022 - 10:00 PM

The new, expanded playoffs start, now with even more teams! It definitely lowers the bar for entry. Under the pre-2012 system, the solitary wild-card teams in each league would have been the Blue Jays (92 wins) and the Mets (101). Now, you only need 86 wins to reach the post-season, as demonstrated by the Rays. The Mariners, Padres and Phillies are also only in the playoffs because the rules were changed to accommodate them over the past decade. I'm fairly sure their fans don't care, especially in Seattle, which has not even sniffed a post-season game in Millie Bobby Brown's lifetime. Screw it, let's just treat the regular season as a way to establish seedings for a 30-team playoff bracket, lasting six weeks...

But here we are. So, let's take a look at the best of three game wild-card match-ups starting tomorrow. Who's involved? Who's likely to win? Are any former D-backs involved? Who should we root for? Let's attempt to answer. But first, you should know the series take place on 3 consecutive days, from Friday through Sunday, with the first two games seeing the higher seed at home. So a team could get bounced without getting to play in front of their own fans. Start times shown are for Game 1 and are Arizona time. Former D-backs listed just appeared for the team this year. There are also polls for who you WANT to win, and who you think WILL win - may not be the same, obviously. Explain yourself in the comments!

Rays (86 wins) @ Guardians (92), 9:07 a.m., ESPN

• Regular season: Rays 88 wins, Guardians 92 wins
• Odds: Rays +120, Guardians -130
• ex-Diamondbacks: Rays - David Peralta; Guardians - Bryan Shaw, Alex Young

Our expansion siblings in the Rays make their fourth consecutive post-season appearance, despite an Opening Day payroll that hasn’t been higher than $75 million, and has been below the D-backs each season. By their standards, 2022 was disappointing, posting their lowest W% since 2017. Extra reason to cheer for Tampa though, in the presence of long-time D-back Peralta, dealt there at the deadline. It has now been 74 years since there was a World Series won for Cleveland. That’s getting up into “Curse of the Bambino” territory. Maybe the name change will bring a luck change with it? However, the Guardians have struggled to draw under their new name, average crowds in Cleveland being below sixteen thousand.

Phillies (87) @ Cardinals (93), 11:07 a.m., ABC

• Regular season: Phillies 87 wins, Cardinals 93 wins
• Odds Phillies +110, Cardinals -120
• ex-Diamondbacks: Phillies - Didi Gregorius, Chris Devenski; Cardinals - T.J. McFarland. Yep, that’s it for St. Louis, I’m certain of it...

Philadelphia engaged in a revolving door fight with Milwaukee for the final spot, each insisting the other went first. The Phillies prevailed, despite winning only 4 of their final 12 games - all but one W being over the Nats, hardly play-off caliber. They did take the season series over St. Louis, even if that finished in early July. Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ narrative will be dominated by the farewell tour of Albert Pujols, who hit more HR in the regular season than any year since 2016. His first post-season at bat came twenty-one years ago, in Game 1 of the 2001 Division Series against the D-backs, grounding out against Curt Schilling. Mark McGwire played 1B that day for St. Louis. McGwire is now aged 59.

Mariners (90) @ Blue Jays (92), 1:07 p.m., ESPN

• Regular season: Mariners 90 wins, Blue Jays 92 wins
• Odds: Mariners +130, Blue Jays -140
• ex-Diamondbacks: Mariners - Mitch Haniger, Justin Upton, Jake Lamb, Stephen Souza Jr, Drew Ellis, Stuart Fairchild, Robbie Ray, Matt Koch; Blue Jays - Anthony Banda, Jeremy Beasley.

Well, if you want familiar, look no further than Arizona NW. Admittedly, Haniger and Ray are probably the only ones to make the Mariners’ post-season roster, according to our pals in Seattle. But the others all played their part in propelling the team to their first playoff season since the Mariners won 116 games in 2001, only to lose to the Yankees. They’ll have a tough fight in Toronto, who haven’t won a post-season game themselves since 2016. It’s possible Seattle could end up not even getting a game in front of their home crowd. However, despite the Blue Jays having the better overall record, they lost five of seven contests to the Mariners in the regular season.

Padres (89) @ Mets (101), 5:07 p.m., ESPN

• Regular season: Padres (89), Mets (101)
• Odds: Padres +180, Mets -200
• ex-Diamondbacks: Padres - Brandon Drury, Sergio Alcantara; Mets - Eduardo Escobar, Starling Marte, Ender Inciarte, Deven Marrero, Max Scherzer, Taijuan Walker

A combined payroll for these two of over $517 million, ranked #5 and #1 in baseball, but neither could buy a division title, and now they face off. The Mets were 10¹⁄₂ up on June 1, and 7 up as late as August 10, when their division odds at Fangraphs were 96.4%. They didn’t play badly thereafter, going 28-22. The Braves just played that much better, taking the division by dint of head-to-head record. Meanwhile, the Padres made a splash at the deadline trading for Juan Soto and Josh Hader, but could only finish 22 games back of the Dodgers - they were closer to the last-place Rockies. Whichever team loses this series is going to have a very unhappy fan-base over the winter.