Arizona Diamondbacks: December confidence poll

Dec 1, 2022 - 7:00 PM

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November results

October has, of late, been the month where we Arizona fans sit on the sidelines, cheering for whoever is beating the Dodgers this year. There’s not much going on that will directly affect the team, and this is largely reflected in poll results that don’t typically change much from the previous month. From 2018-21, the average November figure has always been within half a point of the October confidence score, and the average change over that time was just 0.37. So, let’s see if this year follows a similar trend, shall we? Here are the scores from the beginning of November.

• 1% - 1 (not confident in the slightest)
• 6% - 2
• 10% - 3
• 11% - 4
• 10% - 5
• 40% - 6
• 13% - 7
• 4% - 8
• 4% - 9 (very, very, VERY confident)

I guess the “big” news - such as it is - would be the “7” category, which dropped by almost two-thirds from the previous month. It’s a little odd, but it doesn’t appear that most of them went very far, with “6” going up to a whopping 40% of all votes. That’s the most for any category in a while. The last group to reach that level was at the beginning of March, when optimism was very hard to find, and “1” scored 41% of votes. Otherwise, “9” returned after taking a month off, but this was balanced by an increase in the “2” category. All told, the average dipped slightly, but well within expectations, going down from 5.64 to 5.41, a decline of less than one-quarter of a point.

Below, you can see the breakdown for the past 12 polls’ results, followed by the line graph showing the trends over this and previous seasons.

December poll

Not an enormous amount of exciting news so far. We did have some non-tenders, with Caleb Smith and Jordan Luplow leading the way, making room for some of our young prospects on the 40-man roster. We did have both Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS and Jack Sommers go out and project the team, as things currently stand, to have a winning record in 2023. That’d be nice, but the obvious caveat is obvious: there’s a long way to go before Opening Day. And an even longer way to go AFTER Opening Day, actually. The Rule 5 draft will be the next landmark on the map as we go down that road, with the team currently having an available slot on the roster, for potential use.

But what do you reckon? As ever, feel free to explain your choice in the comments, especially if it has changed from the previous one.