Better know your Blue Jays 40-man: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Jan 26, 2023 - 4:15 PM

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I could pretty much skip Vladimir Guerrero. There isn’t much we don’t know about him. He turns 24 in March.

After a spectacular 2021 season, 2022 was a disappointment. But, well, he did win a Gold Glove.

Looking at the bigger view, four seasons into his MLB career, he’s hit .284/.358/.504 with 104 home runs (54 home runs ahead of his dad at the same age), which are great numbers. But we did convince ourselves he would win the MVP award every year.

The difference between 2021 and 2022 was that his ground ball rate jumped from 44.8% to 52.1, with the fly ball rate dropping from 36.5% to 30.6.

So the goal this year will be turning that around. The how is the question, but that’s between him and the hitting coaches.

There are a couple of other questions about this season:

• Will the new dimensions at Rogers Centre help him?
• Will the end of the shift help him?

The closer outfield walls should be great if he hits fly balls. I’d imagine the team has some idea of how it will affect offense. I’m hoping it doesn’t make home runs too easy.

The Gold Glove? I don’t know. I don’t see anything in the numbers that say he should have won the award. He had the second most errors at first. He was well short of the top guys in putouts and was middle of the pack in assists. Outs Above Average had him at a -4, near the bottom of the league.

But then Rafael Palmeiro won the Gold Glove at first base in 1999, the year he only played 28 games at the position, so maybe the Gold Glove award doesn’t mean anything. Perhaps he got it for playing first base with a glove made of paper mache. I don’t remember seeing a ball go through a first baseman’s glove. Twice in one season?

I like the idea of him hitting third behind Springer and Daulton Varsho (at least against RHP). I don’t know if that’s the plan, but it would put him in a spot to get a lot of RBIs.

Steamer figures Vlad will play in 147 games and hit. 292/.369/.554 with 39 home runs, a nice bump over last year.