Know your enemy: The Minnesota Twins

Mar 27, 2023 - 2:03 PM

The Twins have won eight division titles since 2000, more than any other AL Central Division team, but they have yet to win a playoff series since 2002. They have been active the last few off-seasons trying to put the pieces around their core that can put them over the hump, including bringing in star shortstop Carlos Correa in 2022. After deals with the Giants and Mets fell through over concerns about a leg injury, Correa returned to the Twins on a six-year, $200 million deal that can be worth up to $270 million, a huge deal for a team with revenues commensurate with what the Royals earn.

Injuries hit the Twins hard last year, as the club had the second-most days lost to the Injured List of any club in baseball. Byron Buxton has MVP-level talent, but has had trouble staying on the field and played just 92 games last year, although that was his most games played since 2017. Pitcher Kenta Maeda lost the entire season following Tommy John surgery, and the pitching staff also suffered injuries to Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, and Tyler Mahle, who was acquired mid-season from the Reds. To address the pitching, the Twins acquired young Marlins pitcher Pablo López in exchange for batting champ Luis Arraez.

Minnesota Twins

2022 record: 78-84

2023 PECOTA projection: 88-74

ZIPS projection: 83-79

Manager: Rocco Baldelli

Key additions: Will Castro, Kyle Farmer, Joey Gallo, Pablo López, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor, Christian Vázquez

Key losses: Chris Archer, Luis Arraez, Dylan Bundy, Jake Cave, Tyler Duffey, Michael Fulmer, Gary Sánchez, Miguel Sanó, Devin Smeltzer, Gio Urshela

Offense

The Twins finished seventh in the league in runs scored and were in the middle of the pack in virtually every offensive category. They had seven regulars with an OPS+ of 110 or better, but a poor season from Max Kepler and numerous injuries held them back. Injuries will be an issue again this year with Alex Kiriloff and Jorge Polanco to begin the season on the Injured List, although each could return early in the year. Promising infielder Royce Lewis, one of the top prospects in baseball, is out until at least July with a knee injury.

The Twins have added some veteran depth, bringing in a bat like Joey Gallo, a glove like Michael A. Taylor, a veteran catcher like Christian Vázquez, and a useful utility infielder like Donovan Solano. They would like to get some productivity out of former first round picks Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach, who can provide pop from the left side.

All statistics are 2022 numbers.

Pitching

The Twins were tenth in the league in ERA and eighth in runs allowed last year, depending on a rotation largely made up of mediocre one-year free agent veterans. They upgraded by bringing in Mahle last summer and López this off-season, and are hoping Maeda can bounce back from his injury. Joe Ryan had an impressive rookie season, leading the team in innings pitched and strikeouts.

Twins relievers had the third-most innings in baseball last year, with mixed results. Late-inning reliever Emilio Pagán was a disappointment, but Jhoan Duran stepped up with a fantastic season as the team employed a closer-by-committee. They also got a boost with a mid-season acquisition of former Royals pitcher Jorge López, who was an All-Star last year.

All statistics are 2022 numbers.

The Twins have put their chips on the table and are trying to win now on the backs of Correa and Buxton. They have built up some depth, but injuries could still be an issue for them this summer. Their pitching may be better suited for the marathon season, but will it be elite enough for them to finally win a playoff series?