2023 Major League Baseball predictions

Mar 29, 2023 - 1:30 PM

Today I will join thousands of other bloggers, websites, pundits, etc. in making my so-called “expert” predictions for the baseball season that begins tomorrow. If you have been here at BCB for the last 18 years, you’ll find this prediction format familiar — and yes, you’ll find most of this introductory text familiar too (copy/paste being a useful tool). For those of you new to this site, read on.

I started this format more than 30 years ago, when I was passing out my annual predictions to any of my friends who were willing to read them either with or without scoffing, because I found this method both more interesting and challenging to do than traditional predictions. Even more so, if you’re here I don’t need to insult your intelligence by telling you who the ballclubs’ best hitters, pitchers, etc. are. You already know. Instead, you’ll find a pithy word or phrase describing the hitting, pitching, defense and intangibles of the 30 contenders for October glory.

I’m also not going to “predict” award winners. How hard would it be for me to sit here clacking away on a keyboard and be master of the obvious by telling you that Aaron Judge is a top choice to win another AL MVP award or that Shohei Ohtani could win the AL Cy Young? Just before the 2022 season started, would you have predicted that Terry Francona would be the AL Manager of the Year? Last spring, did you predict Michael Harris II would win the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year Award? (No. No, you did not. Surprisingly, Bob Nightengale of USA Today did — and he got a few others right, too.)

And in any case, anyone using the search function here, or Google, can come back here in October and tell me how wrong I was.

Here are my predictions for the 2022 season. I got three of the six division winners (Braves, Dodgers, Astros) correct, but I whiffed pretty badly on the wild cards.

A Rays/Braves World Series? Well... maybe some other year.

In last year’s prediction article, 68 percent of the 351 people who voted in the poll said the Cubs would miss the postseason. Congratulations, you were the correct ones.

Without further ado, my picks for 2023! (I’ll have more specifically on the Cubs 2023 season coming up at 10:30 a.m. CT today, and our annual preseason BCB staff roundtable will post at 12:30 p.m. CT.)

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

1) ATLANTA BRAVES

Hitting: Solid
Pitching: A bit injured
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: They have their team together for years to come

2) NEW YORK METS (Wild card)

Hitting: Expensive
Pitching: Injured
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: They’re the Mets

3) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Wild card)

Hitting: Powerful
Pitching: Reasonable
Defense: Who needs defense?
Intangibles: The 2022 pennant was probably a fluke

4) MIAMI MARLINS

Hitting: Uh...
Pitching: Very good
Defense: Okay
Intangibles: If the Marlins win a game and no one is there to see it, does it count?

5) WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Hitting: Joey Meneses and what army?
Pitching: Next question?
Defense: Okay
Intangibles: That WS title seems like it was a loooong time ago.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Hitting: Powerful
Pitching: Old
Defense: Old
Intangibles: Pixie dust (or “devil magic”)

2) CHICAGO CUBS

Hitting: Better than you think
Pitching: Better than you think
Defense: VERY much improved over 2022
Intangibles: Aiming for 2023

3) MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Hitting: Not good
Pitching: Very good
Defense: Average
Intangibles: ♬♪♫ “Zing! Boom! Tarrarel!” ♬♪♫ (Also, what’s a “tarrarel”?)

4) CINCINNATI REDS

Hitting: This...
Pitching: ... team is...
Defense: ... tanking.
Intangibles: I thought the new CBA was supposed to reduce tanking.

5) PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Hitting: Who...
Pitching: ... are ...
Defense: these guys?
Intangibles: Can you figure this team out? I can’t.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

1) SAN DIEGO PADRES

Hitting: Expensive
Pitching: Expensive
Defense: Expensive
Intangibles: Going for it this year

2) LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Wild card)

Hitting: Not as good as last year
Pitching: Not as good as last year
Defense: Not as good as last year
Intangibles: Pressure from the Padres

3) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Hitting: Wing and a prayer
Pitching: Returning
Defense: New
Intangibles: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

4) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Hitting: Sneaky good
Pitching: Uh... next question?
Defense: Average
Intangibles: This year’s sexy underrated playoff pick

5) COLORADO ROCKIES

Hitting: Nope
Pitching: Nope
Defense: Nope
Intangibles: Weirdest ownership/management in MLB

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

1) NEW YORK YANKEES

Hitting: Powerful
Pitching: Injured
Defense: Solid
Intangibles: The pressure to win here is intense

2) TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Wild card)

Hitting: Better than you might imagine
Pitching: Improved
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: One of these years, a breakthrough will come

3) TAMPA BAY RAYS (Wild card)

Hitting: Anonymous
Pitching: Anonymous
Defense: Anonymous
Intangibles: Always, always play better than you’d expect

4) BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Hitting: Better than you think
Pitching: Fair
Defense: Fair
Intangibles: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

5) BOSTON RED SOX

Hitting: Hopeful
Pitching: Wing and a prayer
Defense: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Intangibles: Pining for 2018

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

Hitting: Better than it looks on paper
Pitching: Deep
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: Building off last year’s surprise division title

2) MINNESOTA TWINS

Hitting: Wow!
Pitching: Vastly improved
Defense: Solid
Intangibles: Can Carlos Correa’s return bring them to a playoff spot?

3) CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Hitting: What...
Pitching: ... is this team ...
Defense: doing?
Intangibles: As I said: “What is this team doing?”

4) DETROIT TIGERS

Hitting: Returning
Pitching: New
Defense: Javy!
Intangibles: They need something new after 96 losses

5) KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Hitting: Uh, next question?
Pitching: Hey, look, Greinke’s back again!
Defense: Okay
Intangibles: Have not had a winning season since 2015

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

1) HOUSTON ASTROS

Hitting: All-around good
Pitching: Excellent
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

2) SEATTLE MARINERS (Wild card)

Hitting: Revamped
Pitching: Better than you think
Defense: Useful
Intangibles: Will build off last year’s playoff loss

3) TEXAS RANGERS

Hitting: Expensive!
Pitching: Expensive!
Defense: Next question
Intangibles: They sure have spent a lot of money here

4) LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Hitting: Trout. Rendon. Ohtani. Who needs more?
Pitching: Did someone mention pitching?
Defense: Irrelevant
Intangibles: Have not had a winning season since 2015

5) OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Hitting: This...
Pitching: ... team is...
Defense: ... tanking.
Intangibles: Fanatically loyal fanbase

Postseason predictions

First round byes: Braves, Padres, Yankees, Astros

Wild-card series: Cardinals over Mets, Dodgers over Phillies, Guardians over Mariners, Blue Jays over Rays

Division series: Braves over Cardinals, Padres over Dodgers, Guardians over Yankees, Astros over Blue Jays

Championship series: Padres over Braves, Guardians over Astros

World Series: The Guardians end their 74-year drought and defeat the Padres

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