2023 Red Sox Predictions From the OTM Staff

Mar 30, 2023 - 3:42 AM

Record And Finish

84-78, fourth place, out of postseason

Here’s something we’re all guilty of forgetting about the Red Sox from time-to-time: they have 1 of the 10 best starting pitchers on the planet. Sure, he hasn’t really pitched in two years and his body has the structural integrity of a kindergarten art project, but still, when healthy, Chris Sale is really freaking good. I do believe he’ll be relatively healthy this year (none of his recent injuries have been pitching related!), I do think the team is much deeper overall, and I’m certain the more balanced schedule will help the Red Sox. This a better team than last year. But having said that . . . I don’t think it’s possible for the Sox to finish ahead of either the Jays or the Rays. The Yankees, I think/hope are vulnerable, but if Rodon comes back, the top of their rotation is too good. That means the Sox have to outplay each of the Mariners, Twins, Rangers, White Sox, Angels, and Orioles to make the postseason. It’s a big ask.

-Dan Secatore

90-72, third place, last Wild Card team in

I have an odd sense of belief in this Red Sox squad. Is it filled to the brim with superstars like some other AL contenders? Not in the least bit. Does it seem like a balanced squad with a strong locker room and a chip on their shoulder? Absolutely. I’m very much hinging on Chris Sale remaining healthy all season, alongside stellar performances from Justin Turner, Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida. Rafael Devers will continue to solidify himself as the MVP of this club, and with a more balanced schedule this season (i.e. seeing less divisional play in favor of seeing all 29 other MLB teams), I think that plays very well into the Red Sox’s hands. A surprise clinch of the last Wild Card slot on the last day of the regular season on October 1st in Baltimore will give Chaim Bloom and co. a lot of hope to infuse star power into the lineup next offseason.

-Jake Reiser

87-75, third place, last Wild Card team in

Like Jake Reiser, I believe in this team. I can’t explain why except for I guess positive regression in a pure ~vibes~ sense after a broken 2022 team fought its way to 78 wins in a brutal American League East. I can see nine more wins coming from some combination of having better players available, getting better bounces, not facing their (loaded) division rivals nearly as often and, generally, things just not being a giant bummer. Mostly I’m just surprised they won 78 games last year. If that was the floor, I think we’ll see a significant jump this year.

-Bryan Joiner

88-74, fourth place, half a game out of the Wild Card

I won’t run from my past comments. Yes, my prediction does turn out to be the same as last year but the 2022 Red Sox were hot garbage and won 78 games! Even if Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and James Paxton aren’t their mid-2010s selves they have Bello, Whitlock, and Houck behind them plus Nick Pivetta. Sure, all of those guys could get hurt and wreck the season but we’re predicting what the team can do here, not what it might do at 100% or 0% health. I think the Red Sox need a hand from one of the Yankees, Blue Jays, or Rays to make the postseason and even then what’s their ceiling? Third in the AL East? Second....maybe? I guess we’ve run this script before in 2013 where they finish first and literally everything goes right.

-Mike Carlucci

88-76, Third Place, Last Wild Card Team In

I’m always an optimist when it comes to the Red Sox. Yes, they lost Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, but they reinforced the back end of the bullpen and brought in some potential impact bats. I like to point to last year’s mid-summer series against the Yankees when talking about the 2022 team. Over the course of the weekend, they started Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold. That team won 78 games. I feel like this year’s team has a little magic in ‘em, but maybe that’s just me coping.

-Jacob Roy

83-79, Fourth Place, out of postseason

Wow, there is a lot of optimism in this room! As a typically optimistic guy who is picking the Red Sox to win five more games than their Vegas over/under total, my head is spinning that I’m coming in this “low”. The team comes in with a vastly improved bullpen which, on paper, should gain five wins from last year’s 78 in itself. However, I can’t get past the amount of risk and injury history that this team is putting out on the field. The staff is full of pitchers with recent and significant injury history, three of whom are starting the season on the IL. In terms of “up the middle”, the shortstop has never started more than 17 games in a season at the position and is 31 years old, the center fielder has started 68 games in his entire career at the position and is 34 years old, and the second baseman has never stayed on the field for more than 87 games in a season. Their backup. if you were wondering, is Adalberto “I.L.” Mondesi. Trevor Story ain’t walking through that door anytime soon. And if you didn’t hear, the cornerstone shortstop who should have a “C” on his uniform is in SoCal until 2033. That being said, bet the over.

-Bob Osgood

---

Who will be the MVP of the pitching staff?

Boston Red Sox v Baltimore Orioles" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KBrraakq5KNGe1JHLOPfJGEBXL4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/24546706/1475841926.jpg"> Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Chris Sale

I literally just said he’s is 1 of the 10 best starting pitchers on the planet, are you even paying attention?

-Dan Secatore

Kenley Jansen

I don’t disagree with Dan that Chris Sale is beyond vital to this Red Sox squad succeeding this season. However, what has Boston missed the most in the last three years that has truly impacted game outcomes? A true closer. Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, Ryan Brasier, John Schreiber, you name it, have come in and not been able to lock down the role, with Barnes coming closest in 2021 before falling apart. Having a dedicated closer to come and shut down games? I genuinely wonder how many more wins that’s going to translate into for the 2023 Red Sox.

-Jake Reiser

Garrett Whitlock

I’m not overthinking this one. I think, all things considered, Whitlock has the highest non-Sale ceiling of anyone on staff, and his range of outcomes probably puts him above Sale in more situations than it doesn’t. Add in the fact we’ll never forget he’s a Rule 5 guy and there’s always gonna be a miraculous feeling around him, and if the results match up whatsoever he could claim this in a runaway.

-Bryan Joiner

Brayan Bello

Pedro Martinez thinks this kid can do it all and boy did he show it from time to time in his starts. He has the least experience among the pitchers on the staff but sometimes you need a bit of that to have a huge breakout.

-Mike Carlucci

Kutter Crawford

Okay, maybe MVP is a little bit of a stretch, but I love what I’ve seen from Crawford during Spring training. Outside of a poor outing to finish the season, he was lights out all spring and had much better command. He’s not going to be the ace of the staff, but I think he could settle into a Garrett Whitlock-type reliever role and become a key piece of the pitching staff.

-Jacob Roy

Garrett Whitlock

The Garrett Whitlock Breakout is coming. I said this a year ago but I’m prepared to run it back. I understand the concern behind whether Whitlock can hold up for an entire season and is more valuable in the bullpen, but this is a three-pitch pitcher who came up through the Yankees organization exclusively as a starter. He pitched out of the bullpen in 2021 because he was a Rule 5 pickup coming off Tommy John Surgery, and then moved to the bullpen in 2022 due to bullpen necessity in a time of crisis after coming off a month on the injured list with a hip injury that eventually ended his season. If the hip is healthy, which we have no reason to believe otherwise after he threw 63 pitches last week, I believe this is the year he gets it done as a starter. 140 innings, 3.25 ERA, book it.

-Bob Osgood

---

Who will be the MVP among the everyday players?

Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

Kiké Hernandez

After losing Xander Bogaerts in the offseason, someone has to step into what I believe is the most important position in the infield defensively. Hernandez is certainly bringing the bravado and confidence needed to take over, a self-described infielder playing the outfield the last few seasons. If his Gold Glove-like defense translates into his return to the infield dirt, that might mean more than any offensive contribution from any other player.

-Jake Reiser

Masataka Yoshida

I believe.

-Bryan Joiner

Rafael Devers

He’s making like a billion dollars. He better be the MVP.

-Jacob Roy

Rafael Devers

This is his team now and he is ready to lead it.

-Mike Carlucci

Rafael Devers

I don’t think he’ll have the most memorable season — that honor will go to either Casas or Yoshida, with Kiké having an outside shot as well. But in terms of actual production, no one on this team will come close to Carita.

-Dan Secatore

Rafael Devers

26 years old, entering his prime, no questions regarding his role with the team long-term. We saw a 38 & 113 season in 2021, at 24. If he gets the protection he needs with the bats behind him, those numbers are attainable once again.

-Bob Osgood

---

Whose City Connect jerseys will we see the most around Fenway by the All Star break: Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, or Justin Turner?

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Masataka Yoshida

I don’t think we’ll see a ton of power from him (I’ll say he ends up 15-20 homers) but he’s going to spray the ball all over the field and, thanks to the WBC, start the year with a bang.

-Dan Secatore

Triston Casas

Casas genuinely brings a smile to my face when I think about the future of this Red Sox squad. He made himself a little fan favorite with his pre-game rituals after his call-up (though those may not be making a return), and his .327/.377/.959 spring training slashes with three HRs and nine RBIs show he’s ready to step into the first base slot. All aboard the Casas train!

-Jake Reiser

Triston Casas

I don’t think this one is close. If that boy does anything whatsoever — and it sure seems like he will — he’s gonna be a bigger star than Rafael Devers. I don’t say that lightly.

-Bryan Joiner

Masataka Yoshida

He’s new, he’s coming off the WBC exposure, and he has a career playing high-level competitive baseball. While it’s still an adjustment crossing the ocean, his age and experience should help him adapt to MLB faster than Casas (though it’ll be close).

-Mike Carlucci

Triston Casas

He connects on social media with the kids these days, and connects on tape measure shots on the field.

-Bob Osgood

---

Will Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora still hold their respective jobs on November 1, 2023?

Photo by Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images

Both keep their jobs

I think this is the true form of the Chaim Bloom project in Boston finally starting to show itself. The ALCS run in 2021 was honestly a happy fluke, and when they came crashing back down to Earth in 2022, people wanted both Bloom and Cora’s heads. Is there some influence from ownership to keep costs down? Undoubtably so. But remember why Bloom was brought in. Dave Dombrowski came in and won a World Series but decimated the farm system in doing so. Chaim has since built the minor league pool back up very well, and despite losing many core Red Sox players in the last six months, his goal is to build a team to compete for more than two seasons at a time. The 2010s were littered with top finishes followed by mediocrity for the Red Sox. A GM’s plan always takes more time than they’re given, but I believe Bloom is going to be given the time to see it through. Consistent competition is the name of the game. As for Cora, it’s a little more make-or-break, but for a clubhouse that seems to love him and his energy, I think he’ll get another chance to manage this squad beyond this season.

-Jake Reiser

Both keep their jobs

I don’t think this is a make-or-break year for Bloom, outside of the possibility they finish dead last, and by a lot. That’s next year. I think they’re gonna let Bloom do five years and go from there. Cora is a man both made and broken, and I don’t see him going anywhere, again barring a total tire fire.

-Bryan Joiner

Both keep their jobs

I’m not sure there is a scenario where Chaim Bloom is fired but Alex Cora is retained and while I’m really not sure Bloom makes it I don’t think there is any chance 2023 is it for Cora. Ben Cherington and Dave Dombrowski — the last two heads of Baseball Operations -- each received four years to put together their vision. Each won a World Series during that time. While I don’t think the Red Sox need to win a World Series to save Chaim Bloom’s job, I think that with the shortened 2020 season, the strange 2021, and the lockout of 2022 that, in a way, this is the first normal season of the Chaim Bloom regime. Not that this starts the clock at year one, of course. A last place finish probably does result in cleaning house, but even a fourth place finish around .500 with strong performances by the next core (Devers, Whitlock, Casas, Yoshida, Bello) should guarantee keeping the band together for 2024.

-Mike Carlucci

Cora keeps his job, Bloom does not

Only one of these names has won a world series in this city and that’s Cora. He gets more leeway by default, in my opinion. I’m not sure what Cora could have done with that 2022 team he was handed, as nearly every bullpen arm he called into a game for six months failed miserably. Bloom’s inability to address that, the first base fiasco, or any other roster issue before late July last season was inexcusable. As was the handling of Xander Bogaerts, beginning 18 months ago (at the latest). Ben Cherington got four years with a World Series to his name, Dave Dombrowski got four years with a World Series to his name, why should Chaim Bloom get any more than that with the expectations of this city, unless there is a clear improvement in 2023?

- Bob Osgood

Both keep their jobs. . . or both need to find new ones

If this team is a last place disaster, then John Henry will not hesitate at all fire Bloom and let him take the pitchforks. Henry won’t stand pat while the city shows what would be a particularly toxic form of derisive apathy towards his crown jewel. And if that ugly season happens, then I could see Cora deciding to jump ship, too.

But as I said above, I don’t think this team will be a last place disaster. There will be progress, there will be solid play from the rookies, and they’ll try to build on that next year.

-Dan Secatore

---

In 10 years, the 2023 Red Sox season will be remembered as. . .

Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

A bridge to success

The 2023 offseason was beyond contentious for the Red Sox, losing Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Nathan Eovaldi. But remember what I said above. Long-term success over short-term burts is what the Red Sox need going forward. It doesn’t happen overnight. And forthcoming free agent classes stacked with guys like Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, it’s incumbent that Bloom makes that massive splash for one of those elite superstars. If he can pull that off, Red Sox Nation just may be grateful for this 2023 season. We were patient and crazy enough to wait 86 years to win a World Series. Let’s be patient this season and see if the Red Sox can reap the rewards for years to come.

-Jake Reiser

The start of the Casas/Yoshida era

Devers is still the best player, but new things are cool and I think Casas and Yoshida will both be great in new and exciting ways this year, creating a foundation for the next few seasons that (hopefully) see the Sox back near the top of the table.

-Bryan Joiner

The Year Brayan Bello Broke Out

Bello has the stuff to be a perennial all-star if he can put it all together. I’ve seen the name Luis Castillo pop up a lot as a comparison for Bello, and I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility. At the end of last season, he was throwing some truly disgusting stuff. The new trend in baseball is locking up your stars early in their contracts. Bello could, and should, be in Boston until he’s at least 30. In ten years, we’ll look back on this year as the year he cemented himself as a fixture in the Red Sox rotation.

-Jacob Roy

A pleasant surprise

Since the magical, dominant 2018 season the Red Sox have finished 3rd, 5th, 2nd, and 5th with the last three seasons taking place post-Dombrowski. The 2023 edition of the team is kind of a mess with some veterans, some medical unknowns, and a few young guys coming up for their first full year in the majors. But with many, many things going wrong in 2022 the Red Sox were still almost at .500. People are going into this year hoping for the best but not expecting it. And probably they won’t get it. But they will get a solid product on the field that puts the up-and-down of the last decade in context and begins another streak of teams winning over half their games year in and year out.

-Mike Carlucci

The fourth year after the Mookie Betts trade, which was better than the third year after the Mookie Betts trade

It’s Opening Day at Fenway and tickets are still available. That is shocking. It’s increasingly obvious that the Mookie trade cast a pall over the fanbase that still hasn’t lifted, and won’t for quite some time. Legions of more casual fans deserted the team that day and still haven’t returned. They won't return this year, either. But the diehards will start feeling better about the future.

Get your tickets to see Chris Sale make his first start of the season against the Orioles at Fenway through StubHub here.