VEB Community Projections & Bold Predictions

Apr 1, 2023 - 1:00 PM

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Opening Day is in the books and the Cardinals have their first loss. Good to get that one out of the way. Now the quest for 161-1 begins!

Now that would be a bold prediction! And that’s what we’re doing here today.

On the Season Preview episode of the VEB podcast, the writing team offered their predictions for the season, including win totals and playoff chances. Most of them were fairly reasonable, but there were a few hot takes thrown in.

Now it’s your turn! It’s time to go on the record with how you think the season will go.

We’ll start with community projections. I’ll offer a whole series of polls for you to vote in. From these, we can get a feel for the VEB communal zeitgeist of this team. Those polls will include the team’s record, their playoff finish, best offensive player, best pitcher, etc. Vote in the poll. I will provide my own answer below the poll. Don’t let my opinion sway you!

The comments, though, are your chance to shine! Got a bold prediction? A hot take you think might just become true? Put it down for posterity! We’ll check back at the end of the season to see if anyone got any right! And don’t worry about going crazy... we’ll forget all the horrible takes and only resurrect the good ones. Have fun, no shaming!

To the polls!

How many wins will the 2023 Cardinals have?

I went on record in the podcast that I think the Cardinals will finish with 95 wins. I had them at 93 last year, exactly where they finished. They enter this season with a better and deeper rotation than they had Opening Day last year, a stronger offense, and a bullpen that’s at least as good. The Cardinals will be better through July 31 than they were last year, and they are in a great position to add at the deadline. It’s not easy to win 95 games. Some things will have to go their way, but it’s definitely within reach for this squad.

Where will the Cardinals finish in the NL Central?

Not much explanation needed for me. At 95 wins, I have the Cardinals winning the Central. The Brewers have a chance to push 90 wins if everything goes right for them, but I don’t think it will. The Cubs could be a .500 team and could finish second in the division if they are able to squeeze some extra juice out of some of their reclamation projects. I would go Cards, Brewers, Cubs, Pirates, Reds.

How deep will the Cardinals go into the postseason?

In the podcast, I said that the Cardinals will reach the World Series. I’m going to revise that here in my official prediction. I want Goldschmidt and Arenado to get to a Series together. That would really solidify their place among the elite teams in Cardinals’ history. Do I really think this Cardinals team can do that? Not really. It’s possible. But I think the odds are too low for such a prediction. I think an NLCS bid is more likely, so, I’ll stick with that. The cards lose to the Braves in 6 games in the NLCS.

Who will be the best all-around offensive player? (By fWAR)

Here, I stuck primarily with the Opening Day lineup, leaving out the DH Nolan Gorman. If you have an “other” let me know who it is in the comments. But these 8 should cover most voters. For me, I went with Nootbaar on the podcast to be different and make the conversation be more interesting. That would be a somewhat “bold prediction” choice for best offensive player. For this official projection, though, I’ll be giving my vote to Nolan Arenado.

Who will be the best all-around pitcher? (By fWAR)

I stuck with the starters here, but if you think that a reliever — like Ryan Helsley — can top a starter in fWAR, “other” is your choice and let me know in the comments. As much as I love Helsley, that would be a pretty shocking turn of events. There are also several reserve starters, including Jake Woodford, who could get consideration here but, with a 95-win projection, I’m hoping for health and productivity from the best arms in the rotation. On the podcast I chose Mikolas because no one else had. He’ll be fine, despite some hard hit balls on Opening Day. My choice is here is Matz. Montgomery is the safe bet, but I really like how Matz was throwing last season and it doesn’t look like anything has changed through Spring Training. Innings could hold him back; thats his biggest drawback.

Who will be the best defensive player? (By OAA)

We didn’t cover this one on the podcast, so I have no pre-existing history to explain away or feel tied to. There are two obvious choices: Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman. Then the Caridnals have a few other Gold Glove caliber players in Goldschmidt, O’Neill, and even Brendan Donovan got himself an award. I don’t see many votes going to those three in this poll. I’ve been touting Edman’s defensive performance at shortstop all season, so I can’t stop now. With all due respect to Arenado, I think Edman wins this one. And probably by quite a bit. He could be the best defensive shortstop in the NL.

Who will be the most productive outfielder? (By fWAR)

On the podcast, Nootbaar was my answer, with a joke about Tommy Edman and a nod to Carlson and his ability to play center field, where he could rack up production in the case of injuries. I will stick with Noot for voting purposes. But it’s a mistake to write off Tyler O’Neill, who is poised to replicate his 2021 season. If I was more confident in his health, he would be my choice.

My Bold Prediction

Let’s get weird!

There are any number of crazy and improbable things that could happen this season. I’m sure you all will come up with many in the comments. Throughout the offseason, I’ve alluded to a number of things that i think could happen. That includes...

• Alec Burleson could be a plus hitter and force his way onto a starting role on this club.
• Nolan Gorman could outplay Brendan Donovan offensively and become the regular second baseman.
• Dylan Carlson’s offseason focus on power pays off and he’s the most productive outfielder.

Those are three that I’ve mentioned in public on this site recently. But I’m not going to go with any of them today. Instead, I’m going with a pitcher that I think showed the most progress this spring and could be poised for a major break out.

That’s Matthew Liberatore.

Before any real changes in his game, I already believed Liberatore was a back-end starter. Yes, he was terrible last year, but much of that came from unsustainably high performance against his fastball. Yes, his heater wasn’t very good. But even bad fastballs don’t get lit up at the level of Liberatore’s. He had a lot of shutout innings followed by one inning where everything went off the rails; 3-4 runs later he was out of the game and his ERA had skyrocketed.

That kind of performanse just didn’t match his stuff. It didn’t fit with what he’s done in the minors. There was just too much noise in those performances for me to view them as fully predictive.

So, with a base level of a #5 last year, Liberatore didn’t really have to do that much to become a viable rotation candidate. I think he needed to improve in three areas: 1) More consistent velocity throughout his starts. He can’t flash 97 and sit at 92. He needs to hold 95 for 6 innings. 2) Improved command. His control at AAA was fine, but he has to hit his spots better pretty much with all of his pitches. That’s a maturity thing. 3) A better gameplan that maximizes his skills. He had starts with the Cards where his fasbtall rate was near 60% and his curve rate was under 20%. That’s not a good approach for him.

During Spring, Liberatore and the Cardinals checked off all of those boxes. His velocity was up. It was more consistent. Command looked better. And his pitch selection was more in line with what I want to see from him.

Yes, Jake Woodford got the first call as starter in place of Wainwright. But Liberatore, still just 23, is poised to have his first real “mature” season as a pitcher. When — not if — another starter gets injured or Woodford isn’t able to hold up, Liberatore could get his chance and he might not let go of it.

Here’s the bold take: Matthew Liberatore will be the 2nd best starter by FIP on the club this season in 15 starts.

(Update: And on cue, Liberatore goes out and has an exceptional first start for Memphis!)

That’s mine. Now I want yours. Head to the comments and give me those bold predictions! We’ll only keep the receipts if your right.

Happy Saturday, Viva El Birdos!