UFC 277 Odds, Preview & Betting Guide: Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes (2022)

Jul 27, 2022 - 2:38 PM

The main event of UFC 277 features a rematch of one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, as Amanda Nunes will look to get her bantamweight belt back from Julianna Pena. In their first fight this past December, Pena did the unthinkable as a +500 underdog (Nunes, -800), submitting the double-champ in the second round.

While this entire UFC 277 card features great fights with plenty of value, let’s take a closer look at the main event of the evening to see where the action is headed.

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Betting Profile: Julianna Pena (12-4-0)

Last Five Fights (W-W-L-W-W)

Before getting her shot at the bantamweight title in December, Pena had actually lost two of her past four fights, with both losses coming via submission to Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko. Even still, the 32-year-old had proved her worth for a shot at the title with 75% of her professional wins coming inside the distance, just as her eventual title shot win did.

In the metrics department, Pena does hold the edge in grappling, albeit slight, with .91 submissions per 15 minutes (vs. .82), and 55% takedown accuracy (vs. 54%).

Betting Profile: Amanda Nunes (21-5-0)

Last Five Fights (L-W-W-W-W)

The still-current featherweight champ will step back into the octagon Saturday after a loss for the first time since 2014 as she looks to get her champ-champ status back once and for all. Prior to December’s loss, Nunes had won 12 fights in a row, eight of which came inside the distance.

Trailing slightly in grappling, Nunes does hold the edge in striking across the board, most notably in significant strikes landed per minute at 4.55.

Bottom Line

While I wouldn’t go as far as to say Pena’s win in December was a fluke, I do think there were some legit concerns coming out of the Nunes camp prior to the fight about her health; all of which are now resolved. Nunes should come out firing in this one, looking for an early finish.

Best Bet: Amanda Nunes (-265 via DraftKings)

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