UFC Fight Night Paris: Longshot Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions (2022)

Sep 2, 2022 - 4:07 PM

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa will get underway this Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Headlined by an epic heavyweight bout between title contenders Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa, this card should be full of entertaining fights.

Below, I will walk through my two best longshot prop bets to make for this card. These plays are one unit each, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Follow me on Twitter to get all of my plays on days without full write-ups.

(Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Alessio Di Chirico vs. Roman Kopylov

In this main card scrap, we have a middleweight bout between Alessio Di Chirico and Roman Kopylov. These two fighters desperately need a win after some disappointing performances recently.

Di Chirico has now lost four of his last five fights, capped off with a loss via head kick just 17 seconds into the bout against Abdul Razak Alhassan. Meanwhile, Kopylov is now 0-2 in the UFC since starting an 8-0 professional career under a few different promotions.

While we have yet to see it in the UFC, Kopylov’s power must be respected, with seven of his eight professional wins coming via KO/TKO. Kopylov also did score a knockdown against Duraev in his latest scrap.

This fight should stay on the feet, which instantly gives Kopylov the advantage as he is a more accurate striker with much more proven power. Even if Di Chirico tries to bring the fight to the mat, Kopylov’s 83% takedown defense should be enough to keep It standing.

Assuming the fight turns into a striking competition, there is too much power in Kopylov’s striking not to take a flyer on him to win via KO/TKO.

Pick: Roman Kopylov to Win via KO/TKO/DQ (+390)

Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa

The main event features a heavyweight bout between Cyril Gane and Tai Tuivasa. Fighting in front of a home crowd, Ciryl Gane is a massive favorite.

That said, we will look to him to win by a specific method: submission. There is no denying Tuivasa’s power, which is exactly why I think Gane will look to bring this fight to the mat.

Gane obviously possesses a ton of power, too, but giving up almost 20 pounds to the much larger Tuivasa should be reason enough to beat him with grappling. Tuivasa will do everything he can to keep this standing, but his 50% takedown defense is concerning against the technically sound Gane.

In two of Tuivasa’s three losses since joining the UFC, grappling was a big issue as Sergey Spivac took him down six times (and won via submission), and Blagoy Ivanov took him down twice. While Tuivasa has had a meteoric rise over the past three years, his win over Derrick Lewis was the only one against someone even remotely close to Gane’s pedigree.

Just 1-1 in the UFC when priced as an underdog, Tuivasa will have a massive challenge in front of him going against Gane, who is 7-1 as a betting favorite with his one loss coming to one of the greatest heavyweights the sport has ever seen. We have seen Gane go with the grappling route before, both against Mayes and Rozenstruik.

Gane certainly could try to turn this into a slugfest as well, but he is a intelligent fighter, and an intelligent fighter would take the fight to the mat. If It goes down there, it is worth a shot on taking him to win via submission.

Pick: Cyril Gane to Win via Submission (+500)

Best of luck!

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