Top 3 NBA Betting Picks for Saturday, June 19th

Jun 19, 2021 - 12:21 PM

We will be treated to two Game 7s in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, beginning with the Milwaukee Bucks and the Brooklyn Nets facing each other on Saturday. Kevin Durant was able to will the Nets to a victory in Game 5 with a historical performance, in which he posted 49 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists. So if you bet on Durant’s player props in Game 5, you likely had a successful night.

Moving on to the final game of the series, there are different ways you can approach the betting landscape. Does the game remain close? Or does one team pull away with an easy win over the other? There have been three games in this series that have been decided by double-digits. With the only game being between the Bucks and the Nets, we are limited in what we can bet on Saturday. That being said, there are a few player props that have caught my eye, including a couple that pertains to James Harden.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

YTD: 6-7-0

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James Harden Over 18.5 points (-108)

There is no denying the fact that Harden isn’t one-hundred percent healthy at this moment in time. Harden suffered a right hamstring injury 43 seconds into Game 1, which was an injury that hindered him in the regular season. Nevertheless, Harden returned to the lineup in Game 5, playing a combined 85 minutes in the past two games. In his first game back in action, Harden looked out of sorts, making just one of his 10 shot attempts, scoring five points. He also tacked on six rebounds and eight assists in Brooklyn’s valiant comeback.

To follow up his Game 5 performance, Harden looked more in-tune during Game 6, where he contributed 16 points, five rebounds, and seven assists. The good news for the Nets is that he converted five of his nine field-goal attempts, including three of his six three-point tries. While Harden still isn’t his normal self, I’m expecting Harden to be ultra-aggressive in a win-or-go-home game on Saturday. In light of that, I believe we see Harden eclipse his point total of 18.5 points. Before the hamstring injury, Harden had 20+ points in five consecutive games, and if he’s aggressive on Saturday, we could see him get plenty of easy points at the free-throw line.

James Harden Over 7.5 assists (-144)

Besides Harden’s point total, I also like over 7.5 assists for the nine-time All-Star versus the Bucks. Whenever Harden has been active for the Nets, he’s operated as the main facilitator on the team. And when Kyrie Irving has been sidelined — which he will be in Game 7 — Harden has averaged 11.51 assists per 36 minutes, even with Durant on the floor with him. Despite the hamstring ailment he’s fighting through, I believe Harden can get at least eight assists on Saturday.

Throughout the playoffs, Harden has averaged 12.1 potential assists per game for Brooklyn. Even though the shooters on the Nets have struggled to get much going in the series, it’s not due to Harden’s inability to get them the ball. Joe Harris, in particular, has gone cold in the last four games in the series, making only five of his 24 three-point attempts. If Harris and the other shooters can get their shots to start falling in Game 7, we could see double-digit assist numbers from Harden on Saturday. What makes me confident in this bet is that Harden has Durant to dish the ball to, who has been unstoppable in the postseason thus far.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 4.5 assists (+110)

Following a collapse in Game 5, in which the Bucks blew a 16-point lead, Giannis Antetokounmpo responded for Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo would refuse to settle for a single three-point attempt in Game 6, where he notched 30 points, 17 rebounds, and three assists. The trio of Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday combined for 89 of Milwaukee’s 104 points in Thursday’s win over Brooklyn. During the series, we have seen an aggressive Antetokounmpo, and I don’t expect that to change in a pivotal contest on Saturday.

Over the course of the regular season, Antetokounmpo recorded 5.9 assists per game, tying the career-high mark that he set in 2018. But in the series against the Nets, Antetokounmpo has looked to pass the ball less in favor of looking for opportunities to score. In the first six games of the series, the two-time MVP has registered fewer than five assists in each game. Even with that being the case, Antetokounmpo’s line for assists was set at over/under 4.5 assists. With Antetokounmpo looking to ensure that the Bucks advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, I expect him to seek his shot more often than not, limiting his potential assists on the floor.

NBA Prop Bets

• Khris Middleton Prop Bet Odds
• Blake Griffin Prop Bet Odds
• James Harden Prop Bet Odds
• Giannis Antetokounmpo Prop Bet Odds
• Jrue Holiday Prop Bet Odds

Check out our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for the top bets of the day >>

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Skyler Carlin is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Skyler, check out his archive and follow him @skyler_carlin.

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