Best First Basket Prop Bets for Thursday, March 3 (2022)

Mar 3, 2022 - 3:59 PM

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Top Plays have hit in 6 of 8 articles written, including 5 of last 6.

  • 3-2-2022: Mikal Bridges +700✅
  • 2-28-2022: Miles Bridges +490✅
  • 2-25-2022: Lebron James +700 ✅
  • 2-24-2022: Kevon Looney +1000✅
  • 2-17-2022: Jrue Holiday +900 ✅


Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>


This will be the 1st matchup of the year between the Celtics and Grizzlies. Robert Williams (61% tip win) will be jumping against Steven Adams (59% tip win). Based on home and away splits, I’ll expect Williams to win the tip here, but I have a low level of confidence that the Celtics score 1st possession. Memphis has scored 1st in 4 of last 6 home games, while having the opportunity to score 1st in all 6.

If I were playing Boston, Jaylen Brown being out makes this tough to use recent trends, as Brown has made the Celtics 1st team basket in 7 of their last 10.  The Celtics have trotted out there without Jaylen Brown in 14 games this year, and in the last 9 games without Brown, the Celtics have only scored 1st twice. I’ll be playing the Grizzlies here.

In the last 9 games that the Grizzlies have scored 1st, JA Morant scored 4 of those times. Surprisingly, Ziaire Williams has scored 3 times in that same span. In 4 of the L5 that Boston was scored on 1st, it was a PG or SF in all 5. Boston’s worst position to defend against on 1st baskets is SF. So I love the value of JA +750 and Ziaire +1100.

Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn’t been too aggressive for the Grizz as of late, only taking a 1st basket attempt in 2 of their L14 games. In that same span, Steven Adams has had an attempt in 5 of those games. I think there’s value to play him as well at +700.

Top Plays: Ja Morant +750 , Steven Adams +700

Value Plays: Ziaire Williams +1100


This will be the 4th matchup of the year between the Lakers and Clippers, but the 1st time Lebron James (88% Tip Win) will be jumping against Ivica Zubac (32% Tip Win). Although Lebron has won 100% of his tips on the road, they have yet to score 1st against an opponent in those games. I don’t really consider this to be a road game for the Lakers, so I won’t factor in Home/Away splits that much.

The Lakers have scored 1st in 63% of games that Lebron jumps, and Zubac allows an attempt at 1st basket in 93% of games that he jumps. With that said, I’ll be playing the Lakers tonight. Lebron’s jumped in 8 games this year, and in 6 of them, Stanley Johnson or Lebron scored 1st, including Lebron cashing 1st Basket on Feb-25. I like both of the bigs here for the Lakers, despite Lebron being so low value.

The Clippers worst positions to defend against are the PF (16% of 1st Baskets) and the C (14% of 1st Baskets). The 3rd position on that list would be the SG at 11% of 1st baskets. Malik Monk has been aggressive enough in games for the Lakers for me to see some value on him as well.

Top Plays: Lebron James +370 , Stanley Johnson +1000

Value Plays: Malik Monk +900

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