Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Series Preview, Prediction, & Odds (2022 NBA Playoffs)

May 17, 2022 - 11:02 AM

We have a rematch of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 as the top-seeded Miami Heat take on the second-seeded Boston Celtics.  Miami finished off the Philadelphia 76ers in six games in the second round.  Boston took down the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in seven games after falling behind 3-2.

Will the Heat get back to the Finals for the second time in three years?  Or will the Celtics get their revenge from the bubble and reach their first NBA Finals since 2010?  Let’s break it down.

DraftKings Odds

Celtics Series Winner (-180)

Heat Series Winner (+150)

Heat in 7 (+390)	Celtics in 7 (+500)
Heat in 6 (+850)	Celtics in 6 (+265)
Heat in 5 (+850)	Celtics in 5 (+550)
Heat in 4 (+2200)	Celtics in 4 (+700)

 

Boston Celtics

You can make the case that Jayson Tatum has been the best player in the world throughout these 2022 NBA Playoffs.  Tatum is averaging over 28 points and six assists this postseason.  He turned in a performance for the ages in game six in Milwaukee, dropping 46 points en route to a win on the brink of elimination.  While you can still expect Tatum to play outstanding, the Heat match-up a bit better with him than Milwaukee did in the previous round.  The Celtics need the rest of their team to continue to shine if they are going to win this series.

Through the first two rounds, Jaylen Brown has been as good as he was in the regular season – scoring average in the low 20s and making his presence felt defensively.  Al Horford has turned back the clock for Boston in these Playoffs.  Horford played terrific defense on the reigning Finals MVP in game seven and scored 55 combined points in games four and five.  Both Horford and Brown rank in the league’s top ten in VORP (value over replacement player) in the 2022 postseason.  In addition to providing some strong defensive minutes, Grant Williams turned in a couple of 20-plus point games in the Milwaukee series.  Marcus Smart is averaging 15 points and over six assists through the first two rounds.  However, Smart suffered a midfoot sprain in Sunday’s game seven win and is questionable for game one against the Heat.  The Celtics could be in trouble if Smart misses any significant time in this series.

The Celtics have been a top-tier defensive team all season and match up well with the Heat.  Boston had the best defensive efficiency rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the regular season and ranks third in the postseason.  Boston has a multitude of wing defenders it can throw at Jimmy Butler.  Tatum and Brown are both ideal options.  They both ranked in the league’s top 20 in defensive win shares in the regular season and have the height to bother Butler in the mid-range game.  Horford has been terrific on defense all year – ranking in the league’s top five in DBPM (defensive box plus-minus) in both the regular and postseason.  He’ll match up on Miami’s all-star big man Bam Adebayo for the majority of this series.  If 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart is healthy, he’ll be vital in containing Miami’s guards who have the ability to go off for big games.  If Smart misses time, Derrick White becomes a huge factor in this Eastern Conference Finals.  White ranks 12th among all players in BDPM this postseason.

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler has been just as good for the Heat this postseason as Jayson Tatum has been for the Celtics.  Butler leads the NBA in VORP (1.4), BPM (8.4), and win shares (2.5) in these Playoffs.  He is averaging nearly 29 points and eight rebounds as well as over five assists per game through the first two rounds.  While Butler faces a much tougher defensive team than he faced in rounds one and two, and likely more defensive attention, expect him to carry the load for Miami again.  However, he’ll need some more help from his teammates if the Heat are going to get back to the Finals.

Although Bam Adebayo is averaging just under 15 points per game this postseason, he has been incredibly efficient.  Adebayo is shooting just under 60% from the field and ranks in the league’s top 20 in offensive win shares this postseason (0.7).  We know what Kyle Lowry brings to the table when healthy, but his status in this series remains uncertain.  However, Miami has several guards who can pick up his load on the offensive end.  Tyler Herro had a career year, averaging over 20 points per game in the regular season.  He averaged over 20 points per game as a rookie against the Celtics in the Conference Finals two years ago.  He is vital to Miami’s success in this series.  Max Strus is averaging 12.5 points per game in these playoffs and ranks in the postseason’s top 25 in VORP (0.4).  Victor Oladipo has had four double-figure scoring games in eight games played in these playoffs.

The Heat are just as good as the Celtics on the defensive end of the floor.  Miami finished fifth in defensive efficiency in the regular season and rank second in the 2022 Playoffs.  Similar to the Celtics with Butler, the Heat have multiple guys they can throw at Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in this series.  Butler and Adebayo are two of the game’s best defenders.  They both rank in the league’s top ten in DBPM in both the regular and postseasons.  P.J. Tucker is another terrific defender for Miami.  Tucker ranks in the top 25 in DBPM in both the regular and postseasons.  He can defend all five positions and plays a huge role on this Heat team.  Oladipo, Strus, and Gabe Vincent all sit inside the league’s top 30 in DBPM in these Playoffs as well.

Prediction and Best Bets

In all likelihood, this series is going six or seven games.  These teams are very evenly matched.  Expect a defensive series with a few final scores in the 80s and 90s.  Tatum and Butler are going to lead the way.  They’ve both been phenomenal.  While Miami is a bit deeper, Boston is going to get more consistent scoring from its two best players.  Both teams match up well with the other’s top scorers.  I think this comes down to who gets more production from its role players.  I do not think the Kyle Lowry injury means a ton – Miami is 6-0 this postseason without him.  We’ll see what happens with the Marcus Smart midfoot sprain.  This series could very well come down to health.  Regardless, I think we are in for a heck of a series.  I think this is a total coin flip.  If Boston wins, I think it wins on its home floor in six games.  If the Heat win, I think they win it at home in seven.

How to back the Heat: Heat in 7 (+390 at DraftKings) 

How to back the Celtics: Celtics in 6 (+265 at DraftKings)

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