Heat vs. Celtics Game 4 Prop Bet for Monday, May 23 (2022)

May 23, 2022 - 4:51 PM

With the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals entering Game 4, the Miami Heat suddenly have a boatload of injuries to manage. Tyler Herro is out and five other players are questionable. I expect the Heat to experiment a bit with new lineups here, which should lead to bigger numbers for bench players like the one we’ll target below.

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Victor Oladipo Over 12.5 Points + Assists | -115 at DK Sportsbook

With Tyler Herro out, the books should have more substantially increased the totals for Victor Oladipo. Instead, his points total (10.5) sits right at his playoff average of 10.5 per game, and his assists total (1.5) rests a half-dime below his playoff average of 2.0 per game. With Dipo averaging 12.5 points and assists per playoff appearance with the Heat, the books needed to move this number up by one or two more.

To be fair, the books still have time to adjust. Any late-breaking news that one of Miami’s five players with questionable tags—Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and P.J Tucker—will sit, and the books will definitely move this number up. So would sharp money coming in on the Over, which I expect to happen. As a result, we should be able to beat the closing number by buying the Over now.

Oladipo has surpassed this number in one game against Boston and in five of his 11 total playoff appearances. Oladipo needed an injury to Lowry to crack the playoff rotation, but he has stuck in it even after the veteran point guard’s return. Herro’s absence should give Dipo a similar uptick in usage. That’s especially true because the Heat primarily feature Herro at shooting guard—of Miami’s remaining reserves, only Duncan Robinson has spent more time at the two than Oladipo.

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