NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (12/6)

Dec 6, 2022 - 4:05 PM

Remember to be picky about your bets, with only three games on today’s slate. I know it may be crazy, but you don’t have to force bets. The smaller the slates, the fewer solid options there will be. Nonetheless, there are still some good bets for tonight, so let’s get right to it.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Donovan Mitchell OVER 4.5 assists (-120)

I try to avoid the “L” word when discussing bets, but this feels like the lock of the slate. 

Mitchell has been averaging just shy of five assists this season. Cleveland has the slowest pace of the season, so their fewer possessions mean their averages will inevitably be lower throughout the season. The Lakers are in a big pace-up spot with the eighth-fastest pace in the league. 

Mitchell has been facilitating well this season, and I see him following through tonight again. The books agree with a -120 odds set here, but I still see high value for this prop. 

Anthony Davis UNDER 12.5 rebounds (-110)

Where the Lakers offer a pace-up spot for Cleveland, the Cavs are an obvious pace-down spot for the Lakers. Davis’ rebound totals have been inflated of late, averaging nearly two more boards over the last two weeks than the entire season. 

Cleveland has an above-average offense that will give fewer rebounding options to start, but the Cavs also rep the second-best rebound rate in the league. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet identifies this as some of the best values on the slate, with an expected value of 38 percent and a 75 percent cover probability. I also would recommend betting on Davis’ under-points total at 28 (-120).

Marvin Bagley II OVER 6.5 rebounds (+110)

This is another number that just seems off to me. Bagley has been a rebounding machine of late, averaging 8.0 boards a game over the last two weeks. And yes, regression will come, but his rebound total isn’t as inflated as I would expect, and there is still a hot hand to ride, especially against Miami.

The Heat rep one of the worst rebound rates in the league, ranking 25th. Miami’s offense ranks almost the same at 24th. To me, the perfect story is lining up for Bagley to continue rebounding at a high clip. At the value of +110, I can’t pass it up.

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CTAs


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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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