NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (1/23)

Jan 23, 2023 - 5:53 AM

Let’s keep 2023 going right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there is a lot of variability when it comes to betting the first basket but keep in mind these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run, with some being mere lottery tickets.

Last Week: 0-3 (-2.0U)
This Month: 1-8 (+1.5U)

And check out our other top picks for Monday:

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• Top 3 NHL Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Player Prop Bet Rankings, Odds, Picks & Predictions

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Monday’s Best First Basket Prop Bets

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight’s slate.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets

Now, this is obviously assuming Rudy Gobert remains out and Naz Reid starts in his place. If Reid doesn’t end up starting, then it would not be the smartest to bet him to cash the first basket.

When Reid is on the floor, however, he seems to be a magnet for the first basket, scoring 20 percent of the teams’ first buckets. While it is a smaller sample size, that is still a high number, and Minnesota likes to go to their bigs early.

Facing off against Houston has its perks too. Sengun has a 34 percent tip-win rate, and Houston has the least efficient offense in the nation. I truly expect a Minnesota player to secure the first bucket, and I’m going with Reid.

If Gobert does start, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to bet on him instead. This is a single-unit play. 

Bet: Naz Reid (+500)

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls

It seems like a bit of a cop-out, but whenever betting on the Hawks’ first bucket, the go-to is either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray. One of the two guards has accounted for over half of the Hawks’ first buckets this season.

While Clint Capela isn’t too stellar at winning the first tip, Nikola Vucevic is way worse, barely winning a third of jump balls this season. Both offenses and defenses are similar, so I don’t have a strong lean in the ‘trust’ category when it comes to getting it done for the first basket. 

Chicago has allowed most of their opponents’ first buckets to come from centers, but the Hawks rarely go down low early. The Bulls’ second-highest position percentage allowed comes from the shooting guard position. I’m going with Murray more as a value play and am risking half a unit.     

Dejounte Murray (+700)    

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings

It’s way less sexy to go with Steven Adams than Ja Morant, but again, I am playing the value. Adams has won three-quarters of first tips, and the Grizzlies have excelled at capitalizing early, scoring first nearly 73 percent of the time. The right play is a Grizzly tonight, it’s just a matter of who.

I’m picking Adams mainly because of how the Kings’ defense is set up. They have allowed nearly a third of their opponents’ first buckets to come from the center spot. With Domantas Sabonis only winning the first tip 32 percent of the time, I am quite confident in Memphis scoring first, so Adams is my selection. If you want, Morant at +410 is a close second due to his high usage. I will be putting half a unit on Adams.

Steven Adams (+1000)

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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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