NBA First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/27)

Jan 27, 2023 - 12:50 PM

Friday night’s NBA slate includes five games. Even though there are fewer opportunities, we are going to look at the matchups to find some First Basket prop winners. In addition, I’m going to start tracking my Friday and Saturday picks for the rest of the season.

Here are our other top picks for Friday:

Season to Date: 0-0, 0.00 units

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

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Friday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Let us look at the top player prop bets tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers

Friday’s matchup between Central Division rivals features one of the most lopsided tip differentials. Brook Lopez is one of the best tip winners in the league, at over 70%. Meanwhile, Myles Turner is under 50% on the season. Given the correlation between winning the tip and First Basket, it points to Milwaukee players being strong plays.

I’m going to first look at Giannis for the Bucks. Indiana gives up 45% of their first field goals to opponents’ frontcourts. Giannis is obviously Milwaukee’s leading scorer and second on the team in first team field goals behind only Jrue Holiday. Given the Pacers’ defensive trends and the Bucks continuing to work Giannis back into the lineup, he is a play here.

Milwaukee also struggles to stop big men early, giving up 26% of opponents’ first field goals to centers. Myles Turner is the top first field goal scorer on the Pacers. In the games he’s been out, Jalen Smith filled in that role almost identically. The Pacers love going to the center to get the first field goal so with this matchup Turner is worth a play as well.

Pick: 0.25u Giannis Antetokounmpo (+350) & 0.25u Myles Turner (+550)

Orlando Magic at Miami Heat

The battle of instate rivals heads to Miami for another installment. Both teams win the tip at an above-average amount so there is little edge. There are, however, interesting team matchups that I am targeting for this game.

Even though he missed about a month, Wendell Carter has led the Magic in first field goals. Carter has scored the first team field goal for the Magic in nearly 40% of games started on the season. Miami has given up 52% of opponents’ first field goals to the frontcourt. With this kind of number edge, Carter is a strong play for this game.

On the Miami side, Bam Adebayo has scored the first team field goal in over 33% of the games he’s started on the season and has more than twice as many as any other teammate.  He’s had a little bit of poor luck, as these first team field goals have not often led to First Basket prop cashes, but with the near-equal tip-off edge for both teams and his ability to score first for Miami, he is a good play in this spot.

Pick: 0.25u Wendell Carter Jr. (+360) & 0.25u Bam Adebayo (+500)

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